It wasn’t supposed to be this way. After all, Sir Keir Starmer is the first prime minister from an inner London constituency since Clement Attlee. I’ve interviewed him twice and met him more than that; he is knowledgeable, interested and passionate about the capital.
The same, seemingly, cannot be said for his government. While Starmer has spoken of bringing the rest of the country up to London’s level, large parts of Whitehall are instead investigating ever more ways to raid the capital to plug gaps elsewhere.
The most obvious is Angela Rayner’s plan to redistribute council funding away from inner London to the north, which could cost the capital’s local authorities about £700 million and leave London boroughs unable to fulfil basic services.
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Some areas affected are, it is true, wealthy, but it is also the case that within these affluent areas are sizeable pockets of real destitution. In Camden, one area expected to be hit, more than four in ten children grow up in poverty, and services for the most needy are already overstretched.
But the council tax raid is not the only assault. Changes to business rates expected in April will place a much more significant burden on London’s businesses; one campaign group believes it will cost the West End alone about £2 billion. That’s on top of the increases to national insurance and the minimum wage which, by the nature of the businesses in the centre of the capital, have also hit London hardest. One in four of the jobs lost since Rachel Reeves’s October announcement has been in the capital.
There’s more: changes to tax-free shopping — a gift to Milan and Paris — and the tighter treatment of inheritance tax for non-doms have been brutal for London’s luxury market and the businesses and staff that rely on it. Amid all this, you might at least hope for a glimmer of light on housing. Not a bit of it; the capital is building fewer homes per capita than anywhere else in the country.
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Despite all this, for now, the UK’s most precious goose is still laying the golden eggs. About 22 per cent of the UK’s GDP emanates from the capital; a further 14 per cent from the southeast. Those two regions are the only two in the country that contribute more to the Treasury than they receive. That may not last. According to a survey in July by accountancy organisation the ICAEW, London business confidence is at its lowest in years. Squeeze the goose too hard and it won’t lay more eggs; it might simply keel over.
Andy Silvester is London editor