​​​Is Bitcoin topping out or just consolidating?

Bitcoin’s stumble appears to be a natural pullback after a strong rally, amplified by macroeconomic headwinds and technical unwinding.

​If inflation data points toward a more dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) or if institutional demand resurfaces, Bitcoin could regain momentum. Conversely, further hawkish signals or large position liquidations could extend the slide.

​Bitcoin has fallen by around 7% over the past week as profit-taking after record highs, reduced optimism for aggressive Fed rate cuts, and over $1 billion in leveraged liquidations pressured the crypto currency.

​Additional weakness came from exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows and broader macroeconomic uncertainty following last week’s unexpectedly sharp increase in the US Producer Price Index (PPI).

​The majority of analysts view the recent drop as a consolidation phase rather than the start of a deeper downturn but technical analysts look at key technical support levels to gauge what may happen next.

​Bitcoin bearish setup

​Monday’s fall through the April-to-August uptrend line at $117,104 turned the short-term technical tone negative.

​The area around the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $115,149.85 currently acts as support but a daily chart close below it would probably open the door to the key $111,982.45–$111,965.80 support band (May peak to early-August low).

​Additional support sits at the June peak near $110,617.03.

​Bullish setup

​If price steadies above or around the $111,982.45-to-$111,965.80 support area, another leg up could target the mid/late-July highs at $119,815.35-to-$121,012.09, now likely to act as a resistance zone.

​Beyond that, the July peak at $123,181.77 and the current August record at $124,277.50 come back into view.

​Daily Bitcoin candlestick chart