Good afternoon. This is John Johnston, back once again in the PM hot seat, as we ponder whether there really is such a thing as a quiet August.
THURSDAY CHEAT SHEET
— A stack of gloomy migration stats helps fuel yet another day of rows over the asylum system.
— The Home Office is scrambling for a contingency plan as more councils mull Epping-inspired legal challenges.
— Israel’s ambassador to the U.K. has been summoned to the Foreign Office amid growing international anger over new settlement plans.
— New economic figures offered a very brief reprieve for Rachel Reeves.
**A message from Goldman Sachs: Despite macro complexity, M&A activity has been strong in 2025 with first-half deal volume up 29% year-over-year. The boom is especially pronounced in large-scale M&A, where deals over $10B hit a record high as companies shift their attention toward growth. Read the 2H M&A Outlook from Goldman Sachs Investment Banking.**
TOP OF THE NEWSLIST
SO MUCH FOR A SLEEPY RECESS: Keir Starmer’s hopes of kicking back on his delayed Scottish holiday with a deep fried Mars bar were dashed once again, after a dismal set of Home Office immigration stats kicked the asylum hotels story up another gear.
Stat attack: A total of 32,059 asylum seekers were being accommodated in British hotels in June this year, the official stats revealed. That’s a slight drop from the 32,345 figure in March, but still represents an overall rise of 8 percent during Labour’s first year in power. Far from ideal given the government’s insistence this morning that it was confident about its plan to end the use of hotel accommodation entirely by 2029.
It gets worse: Labour’s promise to “smash the gangs” as a means of reducing the numbers of crossings also took a blow, given the number of people coming to the U.K. on small boats or via other “irregular” routes rose by 27 percent — to a total of 49,000 — in the year to June 2025.
More records: The total number of people claiming asylum in the U.K. in the 12 months to June 2025 hit a record high of 111,084 — up a whopping 14 percent from the previous year. Meanwhile, June also saw the highest monthly average of people arriving in each small boat. Around 65 people are on board each vessel that landed on U.K. shores.
But but but: Home Office officials will be taking some small comfort from the fact the massive increase in small boat crossings since the spring doesn’t appear to have translated into an immediate sharp rise in the numbers being put up in hotels.
Hold the line: Home Secretary Yvette Cooper suggested that was proof her efforts to reduce the backlog in asylum claims left by the last Tory government was working. Labour has also helped keep a lid on the problem by increasing returns of “failed asylum seekers” by over 30 percent since taking office, she claimed.
Broken record: Trotting out the usual claims that Labour was simply cleaning up the “chaos” and “broken system” they’d inherited, Cooper insisted the figures would continue to fall as the government rolled out tougher border security reforms and saw results from its pilot scheme with France … none of which offers a quick fix.
Stoking the fires: Naturally, the Tories and Reform weren’t buying that long-term optimism. Nigel Farage claimed British streets were becoming “more dangerous” as a result of the increase and said the public are “right to be very angry with this government”.
Also sticking the boot in: Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp accused Labour of having “lost control of Britain’s borders” by failing to bring down the numbers of people being accommodated in hotels and ignoring the Tory call to deport “every illegal arrival” and send the smugglers “scurrying back into the shadows”.
Usual disclaimer: It was, of course, Philp’s party which both saw the highest peak numbers of hotel use, and which largely failed to send anyone scurrying anywhere while they were in power.
But but but: Political point-scoring aside, a new poll from Ipsos Mori found 42 percent of Brits reckon Labour is doing a worse job at managing immigration than the Conservatives, up from 33 percent in April. Given the poll was conducted between 8-11 August, it means the increasingly dim view was expressed before the latest row even kicked off. Gulp.
None of which … is good news for the government, as it waits nervously to see the scale of the revolt by local councils hoping to secure an Epping-style court win to block the use of hotels for asylum accommodation. All of which is being egged on by opposition parties today.
For example: ConservativeHome’s Tali Fraser reports that all Tory councillors have today been sent a draft motion produced by the Conservative Research Department and the Conservative Councillors’ Association with detailed instructions on how to apply further pressure on their local authorities.
Eek: A joint email, sent by the chairs of both groups to all local Tory reps, said they would “strongly urge” them to follow Epping’s example, “whether in administration or opposition,” and claimed their draft blueprint included a request to council chief execs to consult their legal teams about the merits of pursuing similar injunctions.
Getting stuck in: The Telegraph reports Tory-led East Lindsey council — which covers the seaside town of Skegness — was now among those looking for “similarities” they can act on, with Tory leader Craig Leyland stating they wanted the “vital tourism accommodation” returned to its “intended use”.
Red rogues: Also joining the fray was Labour-led Stevenage council, with a spokesperson stating they were “actively investigating alleged breaches” of planning rules related to migrant hotels, and would take an “appropriate course of action” once it had gathered the facts. LabourList has the full deets.
A very British scandal: As deftly pointed out by Dan Bloom in Playbook AM this morning, the Epping injunction is an interim measure that hangs largely on planning rules, so there remains a chance that the scope of successful legal actions could be limited. But the prospect of more Labour-led councils adding to the throng of those mulling efforts to upend government policy is sure to be causing nervousness in SW1.
Rock and a hard place: The immediate problem facing the Home Office is where on earth they can accommodate those ordered out of hotels, without simply angering another section of the public and shifting the focal point of disruptive protests elsewhere.
Keeping schtum: Labour ministers weren’t revealing much on that front today, citing legal and security concerns — rather than blind panic — for the lack of detail. The Telegraph reported last night that Home Office contractors had reached out to property specialists in the hopes of urgently securing 5,000 residential units to house migrants — although opposition parties have already pre-emptively raged about the prospect of spare housing stock not going to needy Brits first.
Spare a thought then … for Cooper and her team, who are presumably prepped to spend their bank holiday totting up the tally of council challenges and bracing for a fresh wave of Epping-inspired protests at asylum hotels.
DRIVETIME DEBRIEF
BREAKING: Israel’s Ambassador to the U.K. Tzipi Hotovely has been summoned to the Foreign Office amid growing international criticism of the country’s decision to press ahead with new settlement construction plans in the area East of Jerusalem.
It comes after … Foreign Secretary David Lammy was joined by foreign ministers from Australia, Japan and across Europe in issuing a joint statement condemning the plans as “unacceptable and a violation of international law”. The group called for an “urgent” retraction of the decision, warning it risked undermining security and could lead to further instability in the region.
Press pressure: Hours earlier, the Media Freedom Coalition issued a statement saying Israel must allow “immediate independent foreign media access and afford protection for journalists operating in Gaza”. The group, consisting of 26 countries including the U.S., U.K. and Germany, also condemned violence against journalists and called for attacks on them to be investigated.
Also weighing in: Former Scottish First Minister Humza Yousaf says that the U.K. should use trade sanctions to “pressure Israel as it did against apartheid South Africa” in an op-ed for PoliticsHome. Yousaf says that the government is “utterly complicit in the genocide in Gaza” and that his wife Nadia’s relatives in Gaza have “become emaciated while desperately searching for any scrap of food.”
REEVES’ BRIEF RELIEF: There was a glimmer of positive news this morning for the chancellor after ONS stats showed public sector net borrowing (the gap between public spending and income) fell to a lower-than-expected £1.1 billion. Of course, a stack of economists were quick to hose down any serious optimism.
Rained off: Martin Beck, chief economist at consultancy WPI Strategy, said the figures meant talk of a major “black hole” in the public finances now looked “overstated”, but reckoned the outlook was still “uncomfortably tight”. Meanwhile, economist Alex Kerr from the Capital Economics consultancy group concluded the better-than-anticipated stats did “little to brighten the gloomy outlook ahead.” Cheery stuff.
Tough choices: The consensus is that today’s sliver of joy won’t change the number crunching in the Treasury. The Guardian’s Phillip Inman argued that “radical tax reforms” may be the only way Reeves can balance the books ahead of a predicted downgrade in the growth forecast.
TRAIN TO NOWHERE: The RMT announced rolling strike action across the London Underground beginning on Sept. 5 for seven days. The union cited the “dismissive approach” of TfL management, which it said “refused to engage seriously with union demands.” The Times has a write-up.
It’s on fire: The promised strike action comes as the Fire Brigades Union has criticized cuts which it says “could equate to the loss of around 2,300 firefighter posts.” The union’s boss Steve Wright says that it is “simply disgraceful that the government is imposing cuts on this scale, having come to power promising change” and that time is “running out for Labour to demonstrate that it can provide a meaningful alternative to Tory austerity.”
COMPUTER SAYS GO: Keir Starmer is due a reshuffle according to a data crunch from lobbying shop Arden Strategies, which calculates that most PMs since 1979 have carried out their first major reshuffle an average of 407 days after entering office.
Holiday from hell: The figures found that, since 1997, July has been the most common month for a shake-up, as it allows time for defenestrated politicians to escape the media’s glare during recess. August is the least common, given the difficulties of hiring/firing people who are kicking back on a sun lounger. There’s plenty more geekery in this PoliticsHome article from Arden boss and ex-Labour cabinet minister Jim Murphy.
STATS DROP: Labour has lost almost 200,000 members in the past five years and shed more than 10 percent of its members in 2024, according to new Electoral Commission numbers that were released today. The Standard has a write-up on those.
Financially stretched: The figures also reveal that the party more than doubled its donations in 2024 but still made a loss after spending £30 million on last year’s general election.
THE BREACHES DON’T STOP COMING: There have been 49 separate data breaches in the unit handling relocation applications from Afghans seeking safety in the U.K., the BBC’s Billy Kenber and Phil Kemp report. Only four of these breaches were publicly known, including the leak that saw the details of 19,000 people fleeing the Taliban leaked online.
SOCIAL (MEDIA) AFFAIRS
I LIKE JURY TRIAL … MOSTLY: While welcoming Lucy Connolly’s release from jail, leader of the opposition Kemi Badenoch criticized a decision by a jury to find former Labour councillor Ricky Jones not guilty of encouraging violent disorder. She said juries are a “cornerstone of public justice, but we shouldn’t have to rely on them to protect basic freedoms.”
GENDER REVEAL: GB News’ Emily Carver and Patrick Christys revealed live on air that they were expecting a baby boy by slicing into a frosting-rich cake that was blue on the inside … and a group of GBN staff gifted the couple a baby hat emblazoned with ‘GB Baby.’
HALF MAST: Shadow Justice Secretary and aspiring Tory leader Robert Jenrick posted a picture of himself climbing a lamppost and putting up a British flag, saying: “While Britain-hating councils take down our own flags, we raise them up.” Never mind the fact he’s got a pal in Keir Starmer, who backed people putting up St George’s flags on Monday.
BEYOND THE M25
GOTCHA: German prosecutors announced today the arrest of Ukrainian national Serhii K., who is suspected of helping coordinate the 2022 sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipelines. My POLITICO colleague Chris Lunday has the story.
ALL THAT TROUBLE AND WHAT FOR: Elon Musk must face allegations that he defrauded voters when he promised them a chance to win $1 million for signing a petition in the run-up to the 2024 U.S. general election, a federal judge ruled Wednesday. Bloomberg has the story.
**A message from Goldman Sachs: Market sentiment for dealmaking at the start of 2025 was optimistic, with bottlenecks normalizing and macro clarity paving a way for deals to get done. That optimism dissipated in early Q2—yet the M&A market has remained resilient. Several key drivers have propped up dealmaking including secular transformations in the tech, energy, and infrastructure industries, as well as sponsor activity reemerging. Europe in particular has experienced a surge of activity as corporations position to drive growth through the end of the year. But how much of that momentum will continue into the second half of the year? Read the 2H M&A Outlook from Goldman Sachs Investment Banking.**
TONIGHT’S MEDIA ROUND
LEADING THE NEWS BULLETINS: Channel 5 News (5 p.m.), BBC News at Six, and ITV Evening News (6.30 p.m.) all lead on asylum and the immigration stats released today … Channel 4 News (7 p.m.) leads on the IDF’s renewed assault on Gaza.
Ben Kentish at Drive (LBC, until 7 p.m.): The Light Foundation’s Adam Kelwick and campaigner David Shipley (5.05 p.m.) … SKT Welfare’s Fadi Omar (5.35 p.m.) … Former Europe Minister Denis MacShane (6.05 p.m.) … Wipro’s Ivana Bartoletti (6.35 p.m.).
Drive with John Pienaar (Times Radio, until 7 p.m.): Early Education Minister Stephen Morgan … former Universities Minister Robert Halfon … Estonian Ambassador to the U.K. Sven Sakkov … Signal boss Meredith Whittaker … More in Common’s Luke Tryl … former Sky News Political Editor Adam Boulton … and the New Statesman’s Rachel Cunliffe.
BBC PM (Radio 4, 5 p.m.): Labour peer Helena Kennedy.
News Hour (Sky News, 5 p.m.): Education Minister Stephen Morgan (5.30 p.m.) … RUSI’s Samuel Ramani (5.45 p.m.) … South Norfolk Conservative Council Leader Daniel Elmer (6.30 p.m.).
Farage (GB News, 7 p.m.): The Countryside Alliance’s Mo Metcalf-Fisher … Spiked’s Fraser Myers … the Spectator’s James Heale … and commentator Jack Hadfield.
The Evening Edition with Kait Borsay (Times Radio, 7 p.m.): Former Attorney General Dominic Grieve (8 p.m.).
Jacob Rees-Mogg’s State of the Nation (GB News, 8 p.m.): Shadow Transport Secretary Richard Holden … historian Tessa Dunlop … journalist Linda Duberley … the Daily Sceptic’s Laurie Wastell … Reform UK fisheries spokesperson June Mummery.
Patrick Christys Tonight (GB News, 9 p.m.): Reform Councillor Jaymey McIvor … former Conservative SpAd Lauren McEvatt … former Labour adviser Matthew Laza.
Newsnight (BBC Two, 10.30 p.m.): Octopus Energy boss Greg Jackson … former IFS boss Paul Johnson … Kings College London’s Sophia Gaston.
TWEETING TOMORROW’S PAPERS TONIGHT: Jack Surfleet.REVIEWING THE PAPERS TONIGHT: Times Radio (10.30 p.m.): HuffPost Political Editor Kevin Schofield and former Conservative MP Julie Kirkbride … Sky News (10.30 p.m. and 11.30 p.m.): Courier Editor David Clegg and former Conservative SpAd Anita Boateng.
ANY OTHER BUSINESS
WRITING PLAYBOOK TOMORROW MORNING: Dan Bloom.
THANKS TO: My editor Russell Hargrave, reporter Martin Alfonsin Larsen and the POLITICO production team for making it look nice.
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