State Pension claimants could see a £538 pay rise from April 2026. The Triple Lock pledge from the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) guarantees that pensions will climb annually by whichever is greatest – inflation, average wage increases, or 2.5 per cent.
With earnings growth currently surpassing inflation, this looks likely to determine next year’s rise. Data from the Office for National Statistics reveals salaries in the year to April–June jumped by 4.6 per cent.
The current full new State Pension is worth £230.25 a week / £11,973 a year but a four per cent to 4.5 per cent rise would mean a rise of £478.92 – £538.79 a year taking the new annual total to £12,451 – £12,512.
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The crucial figure for the triple lock relates to May–July – expected next month – but specialists suggest the result is already clear. This comes as a pensions minister recently confirmed the State Pension will not be means-tested in the future.
“This isn’t the crunch month for the triple lock, but we’re not far off now. Total pay is up 4.6 per cent in the year to April–June, and it’s the May–July figure that counts for the triple lock,” explained Sarah Coles, head of personal finance at Hargreaves Lansdown.
“A rise of 4.0 to 4.5% means the State Pension would be between £12,451 and £12,512.
“This would bring it within touching distance of the personal allowance – so anyone with even a very modest personal pension income could end up paying income tax.”
“Of course, this is only part of the picture. Inflation has been particularly focused on household bills and food prices, which pensioners on lower incomes spend a larger proportion of their income on. It means many of those who rely heavily on the State Pension will be holding their breath for the rise in the spring.”