Key to bringing peace to Ukraine will be not only the direction taken by its giant neighbour but also the capabilities of the European Union, which, says a new report, has just overtaken the US as the biggest supporter of Ukraine’s war effort.
Can Europe sustain this level of support, and what does it mean for the US-brokered peace initiative? Mint looks at the state of play on a grim anniversary.
How is the Russia-Ukraine war progressing?
The Russia-Ukraine war, which began on 24 February 2022 with a full-scale invasion by Moscow, has reportedly led to widespread loss of life on both sides as well as significant damage to buildings and infrastructure in Ukraine.
According to a June report by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the Russian casualty figure—for both dead and injured— is set to hit the one-million mark this summer. The assessment was based on several indicators of Russia’s battlefield performance, including the relative rate of advance of Russian forces, the size of Russian territorial gains, the scope of equipment losses, and fatality and overall casualty rates. The 950,000 Russian casualties so far included 250,000 dead, according to the study.
Ukraine has suffered 400,000 casualties, including 60,000-100,000 deaths.
Accurate figures from the two countries are notoriously difficult to come by, with each inflating the other’s toll.
The CSIS report says, “Russia has struggled in Ukraine. Russian military forces have failed to significantly advance on the battlefield, seized limited territory, lost substantial quantities of equipment relative to Ukraine, and suffered high rates of fatalities and casualties. Russia has paid an extraordinary blood price for seizing less than 1% of Ukrainian territory since January 2024.”
Who is funding Ukraine’s war effort?
There has been a change in the way military spending for Ukraine is channelled. When US President Donald Trump approved major arms exports to Ukraine in May it wasn’t as military aid. Instead, these are sales that Kyiv must finance, which is where the European Union’s help comes in. This shift reflects Trump’s long-standing view that Ukraine is essentially a European problem and that the EU must take the lead in supporting Ukraine’s fightback.
According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a German research body, Europe is now the leading spender on weapons production going into Ukraine. This process involves the EU buying arms for its military alliance, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato), and supplying these to Ukraine.
Kiel research shows that of the €10.5 billion in European military aid allocated in May and June, at least €4.6 billion is set to be channeled through procurement contracts with defence companies rather than drawn from existing stockpiles. These contracts have been primarily awarded to firms based in Europe and Ukraine—a clear indication of the expanding role of Europe’s defence manufacturing in military assistance.
From the start of the war through June, Europe has allocated at least €35.1 billion in military aid via defence procurement—€4.4 billion more than the United States.
What about overall western aid?
Overall, the US remains the largest single donor to Ukraine. But the EU makes up through the combined assistance provided by its 27 member-nations, led by Germany.
Another significant donor/procurer is the UK, which is not a member of the EU. According to the US department of state in March, Washington has provided $66.9 billion in military assistance since the Russian invasion, and about $69.7 billion in military assistance since Russia’s initial invasion of Ukraine in 2014 (when Russia annexed Crimea). Since 2021, the US has dispatched military assistance totalling $31.7 billion from existing stockpiles.
According to the European Commission, since the onset of the war in 2022, the EU has been the largest donor. It has mobilized €168.9 billion in total, including: €73.6 billion in humanitarian support, crisis response, budget support, and early recovery and reconstruction; €15 billion in bilateral assistance from the 27 EU Member States; €59.6 billion in military assistance; and €3.7 billion made available from the proceeds stemming from frozen Russian sovereign assets.
In addition, the EU and its member states have mobilised at least €17 billion to support people fleeing Ukraine.
In terms of individual donors, the US tops the table by a mile, at $130.6 billion between 24 January 2022 and 30 June 2025. America is followed by Germany ($24.3 billion) and the UK ($21.2 billion) over the same period.
Can European nations sustain this level of support?
This is hard to say and will depend on the leaders’ political will and whether they can remain united in this task. The fiscal space isn’t all that wide, but popular sentiment is still behind Ukraine.
The German economy, Europe’s largest, shrank by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter from April to June, according to figures released by the Federal Statistical Office on Friday. This was worse than the initial estimate of 0.1% contraction but came after Germany saw a GDP boost at the start of the year.
The French economy grew 0.3% in the second quarter, beating forecasts, as a rebound in household spending boosted the Euro zone’s second-biggest economy, according to official data published on Wednesday. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast 0.1% growth for the preliminary Q2 GDP. The 0.3% growth also showed an improvement from France’s first-quarter GDP growth of 0.1%.
The UK’s economic growth slowed between April and June compared with the first three months of the year, according to the latest official figures. The economy grew by 0.3%, down from 0.7% from January to March. However, analysts say, financing the war effort may be less of a problem than defence and security, including mobilising all the arms that Ukraine needs.
What more can the US do?
In July, Trump emphasized that US-made weapons would have to be paid for rather than be given as direct aid after being procured. “We’re not buying it, but we will manufacture it, and they’re going to be paying for it,” he said.
The very long list of US arms supplies so far has included air defence equipment, firearms, Abram tanks, MI-17 helicopters, anti-armour and small arms, and anti-ship missiles.
But Ukraine clearly needs more. Standing outside the White House during the recent meeting with Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky referred to a US arms package of $90 billion. American weapons that Ukraine doesn’t have (and presumably needs), Zelensky said, are “primarily aircraft and air defence systems”.
The most consistent demand, however, is for Washington to give Ukraine the security guarantees it needs to underpin the peace effort, though Russia has rejected any Nato boots on the ground, saying it will view any such move as an act of war.
Given uncertainty over Trump’s peace initiative, what is the way forward?
This depends partly on Russian President Vladimir Putin and how well or badly Russian forces are doing in the war. If the CSIS assessment of a million Russian casualties by this summer is accurate, then Russia will probably double down on its war effort.
Major General Christian Freuding, who is in charge of coordinating Germany’s arms supplies to Ukraine, told Reuters in early June that Moscow had a clear plan to reconstitute and grow its military, and was expected to succeed in efforts to double its land forces to 1.5 million by 2026. But he said Europe is capable of sustaining Ukraine’s resistance against Russia, even if the US decided to completely halt its military support to Kyiv.
The CSIS analysis also pointed to two Russian vulnerabilities that the US and Europe could exploit.
One is the economy, as Russia grapples with inflation, labour shortages, and “limited paths to economic growth” amid serious exposure in oil and gas, which make up 30-50% of Russia’s total federal budget revenue.
The second is the “blood cost” of a protracted war. Taro Nishikawa, project lead at Kiel Institute’s Ukraine Support Tracker, said, “Military aid to Ukraine is increasingly determined by the capacity of the defence industry. Europe has now procured more through new defence contracts than the United States—marking a clear shift away from drawing on arsenals toward industrial production. To ensure timely and effective delivery of the promised aid, Europe therefore needs a strong and resilient defence industry.”
The European Union is clearly focussed on ramping up its military production capabilities, which will become critical when already-approved America arms supplies dry up.