In the third week of August, weekly prices in most major European electricity markets were lower than the previous week. The end of the heat wave that affected part of Europe led to a drop in electricity demand, which, together with higher wind energy production in most markets, contributed to the price decline.
During the week of August 18, solar photovoltaic energy production increased by 1.2% in the Portuguese market compared to the previous week. On the other hand, the Spanish, Italian, German and French markets registered declines. The French market had the largest drop, 23%, followed by a 12% decrease in the German market. Both markets registered a change of trend after having registered increases over the previous three weeks. The Spanish and Italian markets registered the smallest decreases, 5.8% and 8.9%, respectively, maintaining the downward trend for the second consecutive week.
Despite the decrease in weekly solar photovoltaic energy production, on Monday, August 18, the German market reached its second highest production for a day in August in its history, with a generation of 423 GWh.
For the week of August 25, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy forecasts, solar photovoltaic energy generation will increase in the Spanish market, while it will decrease in the Italian and German markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
In the third week of August, wind energy production increased in most major European electricity markets compared to the previous week. Portugal registered the largest increase, 78%, maintaining the upward trend for the second consecutive week. Italy, Germany and Spain registered increases of 26%, 31% and 39%, respectively, and registered a change of trend upwards after two weeks of declines. The exception was the French market, which reduced its wind energy production by 12% after registering an increase during the previous week.
For the last week of August, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy forecasts, wind energy generation will increase in the German, Spanish and French markets. In contrast, production with this technology will decrease in the Italian and Portuguese markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Electricity demand
During the week of August 18, electricity demand fell in most major European markets compared to the previous week. The Portuguese market registered the largest drop, 6.9%, and continued its downward trend for the third consecutive week. The Spanish market registered the second largest decrease, 5.7%, after two weeks of increases. On the other hand, the British market registered the smallest decline, 0.3%, while in the German and French markets demand fell by 1.6% and 3.0%, respectively.
The Italian and Belgian markets were the exceptions. Electricity demand in the Italian market increased by 1.1%, after registering declines over the previous four weeks. Meanwhile, the Belgian market increased demand by 1.3%, extending the upward trend for the fourth consecutive week.
Average temperatures decreased in all analyzed markets, with drops ranging from 3.0 °C in Italy to 5.3 °C in France.
Despite the recovery in work activity after the national holiday of August 15, the Assumption of the Virgin, celebrated in Spain, Belgium, France, Italy and Portugal, demand fell in most markets, driven by the drop in temperatures after the end of the second heat wave that affected part of Europe.
For the last week of August, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts, demand will increase in the German, Portuguese, Spanish and Italian markets, while the Belgian, French and British markets will register declines.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.
European electricity markets
In the third week of August, average prices in most major European electricity markets fell compared to the previous week. The exception was the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries, with a 60% increase. The MIBEL market of Spain and Portugal registered the largest percentage price drop, 18%. In the rest of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices fell between 0.8% in the EPEX SPOT market of Belgium and 12% in the EPEX SPOT market of France.
In the week of August 18, weekly averages were below €80/MWh in most European electricity markets. The exceptions were the German market, the N2EX market of the United Kingdom, and the IPEX market of Italy, with averages of €80.32/MWh, €94.72/MWh and €106.05/MWh, respectively. The Nordic market registered the lowest weekly average, €44.81/MWh, despite the price increase registered in this market. In the rest of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices ranged from €58.48/MWh in the French market to €79.34/MWh in the Dutch market.
Regarding daily prices, on Sunday, August 24, the Nordic market registered the lowest average of the week among the analyzed markets, €20.96/MWh. In contrast, on August 21, this market registered its highest price since May 9, €74.19/MWh. Meanwhile, daily prices in the Italian market remained above €100/MWh during the third week of August. On August 20, this market reached the highest daily average of the week, €111.24/MWh.
In the week of August 18, the increase in wind energy production and the drop in demand in most markets led to lower prices in European electricity markets. In addition, solar energy production increased in the Portuguese market.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that, in the fourth week of August, prices will rise in most European electricity markets, driven by higher demand in most markets. In addition, wind energy production will decrease in the Italian and Portuguese markets, while solar energy production will fall in Germany and Italy.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.
Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market registered their weekly minimum settlement price, $65.79/bbl, on Tuesday, August 19. Afterwards, prices rose. As a result, on Friday, August 22, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, $67.73/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 2.9% higher than the previous Friday.
Talks to achieve peace in Ukraine exerted downward pressure on Brent oil futures prices at the beginning of the third week of August. However, the lack of progress in negotiations and the possibility of new sanctions by the United States on countries importing Russian oil, such as India, contributed to the price increase starting August 20. In addition, US oil reserves fell. The possibility of interest rate cuts in the United States, announced on Friday, also exerted upward pressure on prices.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, they registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €31.23/MWh, on Tuesday, August 19. Subsequently, prices began an upward trend. As a result, on Friday, August 22, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €33.57/MWh. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 8.2% higher than the previous Friday.
In the third week of August, the difficulties in reaching a peace agreement for Ukraine exerted upward pressure on TTF gas futures prices. Scheduled maintenance work in Norway, which will reduce the flow of gas from that country, also contributed to the price increase.
Regarding CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2025, they registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €71.18/t, on Tuesday, August 19. On the other hand, on Thursday, August 21, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €72.61/t. On Friday, August 22, the settlement price was slightly lower, €72.51/t. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was still 2.6% higher than the previous Friday.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.