Germany’s Merz: I Am Prepared For the Ukraine War to Last a Long Time
Kielce, Poland – Every year, the city of Kielce hosts Poland’s Międzynarodowy Salon Przemysłu Obronnego (International Defence Industry Exhibition or MSPO), which has become the second-largest expo of its kind in all of Europe.
This year, there are exhibitors not just from Europe, but from the proverbial four corners of the world.
Germany’s Ukraine War Warning
But if there is an overall theme to this year’s event on everyone’s mind, it is the remarks made this past Sunday by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.
The German leader spent most of Sunday burning up the airwaves with his prognosis on how the war in Ukraine might play out from this day forward.
He sees the conflict as stretching on for the foreseeable future, and with the US playing a lesser role than it might have in previous generations.
However, Merz no longer sees supporting Ukraine in the war as an act of solidarity with NATO or the EU, or as upholding certain principles of the rules-based international world order.
Ensuring Ukraine’s security, he says, is an act of self-preservation for the Federal Republic.
If Russia is able to overrun Ukraine, then Poland and then Germany would be next, as he now sees it.
“I am prepared for the war to last a long time,” the German Chancellor said to the German news service Deutsche Welle. According to Merz, the war could end tomorrow if Ukraine capitulates, but that is “not an option.” “Then the day after tomorrow it will be the turn of the next country, and the day after tomorrow—ours,” Merz added.
Alaska Summit Failure?
His position is the clearest sign yet that European nations are reaching the conclusion that the rounds of attempted diplomacy with Russian President Vladimir Putin have been little more than theatrics. The former KGB Lt. Col. continues to break every deadline that is set for him by US President Donald Trump for the imposition of additional sanctions. This is one of the main points that Merz made reference to in remarks he made in a joint press event with French President Emanuelle Macron in Toulon.
“Russia is ignoring all diplomatic efforts to end the war,” he said. “Europeans must together with US carefully discuss the next steps now. There must be an opportunity for Putin to meet with Zelenskiy, but there must be a willingness on the Russian side to initiate a ceasefire for such a meeting to take place,” he continued.
But he added in conclusion, “I am under no illusions. The war may last several months more—we must be prepared for that.”
Sceptics Of Trump’s Diplomacy
In the week prior to his Sunday announcements, Merz had expressed skepticism that Trump’s ongoing efforts to squeeze a peace agreement out of Putin would yield any positive results.
“I would like the United States of America to work with us to solve this problem for as long as possible,” Merz said. “Diplomacy isn’t about flipping a switch overnight and then everything will be fine again. It’s a lengthy process.”
When asked about security guarantees and if they would be airtight enough to protect Ukraine from another Russian attack – even if Moscow had previously signed on to a peace agreement — Merz said: “The number one priority is supporting the Ukrainian army so that they can defend this country in the long term. That is the absolute priority, and we will begin doing that now.”
He was then asked if Germany was prepared to send troops to Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire. Merz reminded those asking that every foreign troop deployment required Bundestag approval. He also did not specify what a German deployment could look like or whether he supported such a step.
What European Rearmament Means for the US
Last September, Dr. Phillips O’Brien, head of the School of International Relations and Professor of Strategic Studies at the University of St. Andrews, co-authored an article for Foreign Affairs with retired RAF Air Marshal Edward Stringer entitled “Planning for a Post-American NATO.” Their thesis was that Trump, in his second term, would be “freed from the influence of the traditional Atlanticist Republicans who staffed his cabinet in his first administration,” resulting in a more isolationist foreign policy becoming the direction of travel in Washington.
Trump has prided himself on making foreign policy in general and participation in NATO in particular as a process in which he wants a better deal for the US from a business standpoint. This has resulted in the recent agreement on US support for Ukraine, in which the US no longer donates weaponry to Ukraine in its war against Russia.
Instead, in an agreement crafted with NATO General Secretary Mark Rutte, the US sells its weaponry to member states of the alliance, who then pass this hardware on to the Ukrainian military. While this may have seemed like a genius of a business arrangement in the short term, O’Brien and others see trends that indicate European nations will start buying more of their own weapons and less of US platforms, “like the F-35”.
Spain recently pulled out of an F-35 buy, partly due to these issues and partly due to price. The F-35, which Lockheed Martin makes in the US, is “especially vulnerable to this sort of economic turbulence,” said a recent article in Politico.
F-35 parts are sourced from more than 100 suppliers around the world. The more export orders the company receives, the lower the unit price per aeroplane. This means that if countries withdraw from a proposed procurement or reduce their total purchase, prices will increase for each aircraft for all users and buyers. The combined price tag for Spain’s and Switzerland’s F-35 orders was about $15 billion for several dozen planes each, reports the publication.
“The more that US telegraphs to the Europeans that they are ‘on their own’ in confronting Russia, the more US defense companies are going to find their orders from the continent decreasing,” said a European defense enterprise director who spoke to National Security Journal at the MSPO exhibition.
About the Author: Reuben F. Johnson
Reuben F. Johnson has thirty-six years of experience analyzing and reporting on foreign weapons systems, defense technologies, and international arms export policy. Johnson is the Director of Research at the Casimir Pulaski Foundation. He is also a survivor of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. He worked for years in the American defense industry as a foreign technology analyst and later as a consultant for the US Department of Defense, the Departments of the Navy and Air Force, and the governments of the United Kingdom and Australia. In 2022-2023, he won two awards in a row for his defense reporting. He holds a bachelor’s degree from DePauw University and a master’s degree from Miami University in Ohio, specializing in Soviet and Russian studies. He lives in Warsaw.
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