Translated by
Nazia BIBI KEENOO
Published
September 4, 2025
The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) reports that world cotton production missed its targets last month, reaching 25.5 million tonnes instead of the 25.9 million tonnes forecast. This shortfall comes as the country of origin of cotton plays an increasingly significant role in global customs procedures.
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The decline was mainly attributed to the United States—the world’s fourth-largest cotton supplier—where output fell by 400,000 tonnes. Additional drops were reported in Pakistan and Sudan, where harvests declined by 100,000 and 50,000 tonnes, respectively.
The fall in US production, driven by prolonged drought in major cotton-producing states, has drawn attention across Asia. As trade tensions between Beijing and Washington persist, US cotton exports to China have plummeted—from 40% of total exports to just 8% within a year.
Meanwhile, as previously reported by FashionNetwork.com, several Asian nations specializing in textile and garment manufacturing are turning to US cotton to bypass customs sanctions. These include Bangladesh, Pakistan, Indonesia, and India—the latter being the world’s second-largest cotton producer behind China. However, this strategy may be short-lived if US cotton supplies continue to tighten.
With exports to China declining, American cotton is now primarily directed toward Vietnam, Pakistan, Turkey, and India.
At the same time, large volumes of Chinese cotton remain banned from multiple markets due to concerns over forced labor involving the Uyghur population in the Xinjiang region. This shift in sourcing raises new concerns about prices. Based on current supply and demand conditions, ICAC estimates that cotton for the 2025–26 season will range between 60 and 96 cents per pound, with 76 cents as the median projection.
Cotton represents approximately 20% of global fiber production. It ranks as the second most-produced fiber worldwide, following polyester (57%), and ahead of cellulosic fibers (5%), which are derived from chemically processed plant material.
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