The US labor market is slowing down.
After a round of weaker-than-expected job market figures this week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the August jobs report on Friday morning at 8:30 a.m. ET. The report is expected to confirm these trends seen elsewhere in the US economy.
Economists expect the US economy added 75,000 jobs in August while the unemployment rate is expected to have risen to 4.3%, according to data from Bloomberg. Economists are also expecting hourly earnings to have increased 0.3% over the prior month in August and 3.7% over last year.
In July, the economy created 73,000 new jobs, but the headline that emerged from that report was revisions to job gains in May and June, which wiped out some 258,000 previously reported gains.
Following that report, President Trump removed the head of the BLS, Erika McEntarfer. Trump later nominated EJ Antoni, chief economist at the Heritage Foundation, to take the role.
“We continue to see softness growing in the labor market as tariff policy uncertainty lingers, immigration changes take effect, and AI adoption grows,” Eric Teal, chief investment officer of Comerica Wealth Management, wrote in an email on Thursday.
“The silver-lining is the weaker the jobs data the more cover there is for stimulative interest rate cuts that are on the horizon.”
Construction workers work on the exterior of a housing development in Los Angeles on Aug. 28, 2025. (FREDERIC J. BROWN/AFP via Getty Images) · FREDERIC J. BROWN via Getty Images
Friday’s report will come after data out Thursday from private payroll provider ADP showed there were 54,000 private sector jobs created last month, while data from the Labor Department showed initial filings for unemployment insurance tallied 237,000 last week, the most since June.
The results will be closely watched as the Federal Reserve looks increasingly likely to cut rates in September after months of inaction. Traders are pricing in a more than 95% chance of a cut as of Thursday morning, according to data from the CME Group.
Read more: How jobs, inflation, and the Fed are all related
“This week’s ADP payrolls, weekly unemployment claims, and JOLTS all corroborate the developing view of marginal deterioration in the labor market,” Jordan Rizzuto, managing partner and chief investment officer of GammaRoad Capital Partners, wrote in a note on Thursday.
“This further supports market expectations for a rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting, particularly given Powell’s comments at Jackson Hole regarding the FOMC’s increasing emphasis on employment conditions.”
Jake Conley is a breaking news reporter covering US equities for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X at @byjakeconley or email him at jake.conley@yahooinc.com.