Aston Villa have enjoyed the Champions League this season and are extremely keen to get back there with a top five finish next season
Will Ollie Watkins (centre) and Co be celebrating a return to the Champions League come May? (Image: PA)
Aston Villa are bang in contention for a second successive campaign in the Champions League after five straight wins in the Premier League catapulted them back into the qualification reckoning.
Villa are now seventh in the top-flight table after 33 games, but they are only outside the Champions League places on goal difference. After English teams’ strong showing in European competitions this term – something Villa themselves have contributed to – fifth will be enough for a Champions League place.
It’s ultra competitive, though. While you’d expect to see Manchester City and Chelsea in the mix, Newcastle United – who have benefitted from a season without ant European distractions – have made great strides again under Eddie Howe. Nottingham Forest’s campaign, meanwhile, has come from nowhere and they’re deservingly in the running, too.
But five into three doesn’t go, and with Liverpool and Arsenal already out of sight, the final five matches of the season will determine which of the quintet will claim the remaining three places.
The run-in
(Prior to Tottenham Hotspur v Nottingham Forest on Monday 21 April)
3. Newcastle United (59 points)
Ipswich Town (H), Brighton and Hove Albion (A), Chelsea (H), Arsenal (A), Everton (H)
4. Manchester City (58 points)
Aston Villa (H), Wolves (H), Southampton (A), Bournemouth (H), Fulham (A)
5. Chelsea (57 points)
Everton (H), Liverpool (H), Newcastle United (A), Manchester United (H), Nottingham Forest (A)
6. Nottingham Forest (57 points)
Tottenham Hotspur (A), Brentford (H), Crystal Palace (A), Leicester City (H), West Ham United (A), Chelsea (H)
7. Aston Villa (57 points)
Manchester City (A), Fulham (H), Bournemouth (A), Tottenham Hotspur (H), Manchester United (A)
What have fifth placed teams needed in recent years?
Last year, Villa finished fourth and pipped Tottenham to the Champions League in the process. They finished on 68 points, with Spurs back on 66 and Chelsea in sixth on 63 – meaning, technically, 64 would’ve been enough to have finished fifth.
In 2022-23, Liverpool claimed 67 points but 63 would’ve been enough. In 2021-22, Arsenal finished fifth with 69, but they were a huge 11 points ahead of sixth placed Man United – therefore 59 would’ve been enough, although that anomaly wouldn’t get you close this year.
In 2021, behind closed doors, Leicester City finished fifth with 66 points and they did so the year before, too, with 62 when 60 was enough. Arsenal had 70 in 2019 when 67 was enough and Chelsea had 70 too in 2018, when 64 would’ve been sufficient.
In the last eight years, the mean average points required to post a fifth placed finish – differentiating from what the fifth placed club ACTUALLY posted – is a smidgen over 64. It’s likely, then, with such in-form sides and so many teams still in the running ahead of the final handful of matches, that this could be an unusually high points tally needed for a top five finish.
Where will Villa finish this season? Have your say HERE
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