Millions of state pensioners are set to miss out on a Triple Lock increase next year.

This is the measure that guarantees that the state pension rises each year in line with either inflation, wage increases or 2.5% – whichever is the highest. It meant those on the Full New State Pension saw a rise of 4.1% in April 2025, or £475 a year.

The majority are still on its predecessor, the old State Pension, which is lower, and so they only saw a rise of £362.65.

This is because many retired people – particularly those born before 1953 if they’re women or born before 1951 if they’re men – also have a different earnings related pension, commonly known as Serps, which only rises by inflation every year.

The complexity of the rules mean that many people don’t fully understand their pension rises, and how it is calculated.

Sir Steve Webb, a former pensions minister, says: “The additional state pension, often called Serps, has always been linked to inflation, whereas the old basic state pension has benefited from a more generous formula since 2011.

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“Next April, the additional state pension will simply be linked to inflation as usual, but the basic pension will rise by the higher of inflation or wages growth – and until October, we will not know for sure which will be the key number.”

The basic state pension, which is currently £176.45 a week or £9175.40 a year, will rise according to the triple lock, which could mean a hike of £422 for those on the maximum basic rate.

However, inflation which is linked to Serps or S2P, currently looks lower.