For many years before the French Revolution in 1789 and the bloody convulsions in France and war across Europe that it produced, ministers in Paris knew they were presiding over an unsustainable situation. Louis XVI appointed one finance minister after another — Turgot, Necker, Calonne — who tried varying reforms to save the French state from its eventual bankruptcy. Each of them knew they needed to be radical, but all of them were thwarted by the vested interests of their day: tax-exempt nobles and churches, restrictive trade guilds and regional parlements.
The paralysis led to financial and political disaster; with the king, who had failed to give decisive backing to reforming ministers, ultimately executed on the guillotine.
France in 2025 offers some disturbing parallels. As I write, the fourth prime minister in two years, François Bayrou, looks set to fall — like his predecessors — because he proposed measures to rein in an unsustainable state budget. Today’s vested interests are trade unions and political parties who refuse to take any responsibility. One possible next PM is Oliver Faure of the Socialist Party. He has opposed the efforts of the previous premiers. If he takes office, he will propose cuts, albeit smaller in scope. But he will present an unpleasant budget, just the same. And within six months he will fall, just the same.
As in the 1780s, leaders who understand fully that radical reforms are urgent and vital cannot muster the strength and unity to persist with them. Thus France staggers on, with a budget deficit and national debt considerably higher than the UK, further into the arms of the hard right or left. The moderate parties and Macron’s presidency are another ancien regime facing collapse.
Much of mainstream politics across Europe is not far behind. Although the new coalition government in Berlin, led by Friedrich Merz, has discarded old assumptions with a huge spending spree on defence and infrastructure financed by debt, it is already struggling to agree on tax and welfare reforms and is plunging in popularity. The far-right AfD often leads national polls and could easily win more state-level elections.
If even in Germany, the one major European country with financial headroom, sensible political leaders are struggling to make the changes they want and are losing out rapidly to extremism, then western Europe is on the brink of dramatic political change. Governments of the centre left and centre right that have alternated in power for decades are now on their very last chance before the political guillotine falls.
Britain ought to look very different from the multi-party paralysis in France and the endless coalition compromises in Germany. One party has a huge majority, elected only last year. There are far fewer excuses for being unable to reform the state, take long-term decisions, communicate a steady sense of direction and keep good ministers in post. Yet somehow, Sir Keir Starmer’s government has ended up after only 14 months even less popular than its counterpart in Germany, only slightly more in financial control than France, with no sense of national purpose and, in recent days, almost every minister who really knew what they were doing moved to a different post.
The UK, France and Germany are therefore in a strikingly similar position despite their very different political systems and electoral cycles. In each country, established governing parties are on a road to disaster, facing defeat at the hands of populist parties that are untested, more divisive, with less sense of financial responsibility and a weaker commitment to defending the continent. But those parties give voice to populations that have run out of patience with the established ways of doing things. For Reform to sign up nearly a quarter of a million members and stage a conference like last week’s is a serious political achievement.
Just like Louis XVI’s ill-fated finance chiefs, many ministers in all three countries largely understand that this is their final opportunity, that they need to show some hope and direction while also gripping major financial problems, and that otherwise a reckoning is coming that will sweep them away. And just like those French leaders in the 1780s, they need strong backing from the top to take radical measures if they are going to survive.
In France, Macron has been in office so long and made so many enemies that he cannot take such radical steps, even though he believes in them. In Germany, Merz will have to hope for the best with the watered down reforms of his coalition. But in Britain, Starmer has the chance — just — to save himself and make essential changes. The reshuffle of the past few days at least suggests that he or his advisers understand that. Ministers have been appointed to critical positions, particularly Shabana Mahmood as home secretary, Pat McFadden at work and pensions, and Darren Jones in the new slot of chief secretary in No 10, who show some understanding that business as usual will not be remotely enough.
Louis XVI, however, was fairly good at appointing ministers. The problem was that he didn’t back them up. If these new ministers are to make a difference, the PM will have to urge them on and help them overcome intense resistance in his own party. When they come up with radical ideas, he should say get on with those and come back with more.
On illegal migration, for instance, that means doing much more and doing it quickly. Introduce digital ID, process asylum seekers out of the country, reduce benefit eligibility, listen to Jack Straw on amending the Human Rights Act, and make it harder to get permanent residency. On welfare reform, restrict mental health benefits over time to the most severe conditions and change pension benefits over a 20-year period to keep the country creditworthy. On the economy, reverse some of the tax rises that discourage successful people from setting up business in Britain and double everything being done to attract new technologies. Set up more AI growth zones and connect them to the grid. Increase the funds to attract the best researchers from abroad.
These are just examples. A combination of more radical policies is needed to respond to the legitimate expectation of people that their government can control borders, sustain the finances of the country and chart a hopeful path for the future. It is very common in history for leaders to know what is necessary but be unable to do it, through giving in to entrenched interests, weak backing for sensible ministers and the postponement of the most difficult decisions until events run out of control. That was the story of France before its collapse in the 18th century. It is becoming the story of France today. The prime minister has one more chance to stop it becoming the story of Britain.