The Bank of England is unlikely to cut interest rates again this year, according to a host of City economists who have pushed back projections for lower borrowing costs after the announcement of late November budget.
Analysts at HSBC and Pantheon Macroeconomics said the Bank’s monetary policy committee (MPC) would keep rates on hold at its next four meetings this year at 4 per cent, while economists at Deutsche Bank revised their forecasts to one rate cut in December rather than November, as the Bank tries to assess the impact of the budget on the economy and labour market.
The central bank has cut interest rates five times since August last year. Ratesetters have been divided, splitting into three camps on how best to manage monetary policy.
• City’s rate cut expectations fade amid stubbornly high inflation
Cash Isas are proving popular
ALAMY
Savers have been putting money in cash savings this month, despite only about a quarter of accounts beating the Bank of England base rate, new figures show.
Moneyfacts counted 2,289 savings deals, including cash Isas, in September, the highest total since its records began in February 2007. It said the choice of cash Isas rose to 662 deals in September, a record high and the eighth monthly rise.
Only 26 per cent of savings accounts on the market beat the Bank’s base rate of 4 per cent. The average savings rate available fell to 3.46 per cent in September, down from 3.5 per cent in August. A year ago, the average savings rate was 3.8 per cent and in September 2023 it was 4.29 per cent.
SFO secures £1.1m from home linked to fraudster
The Serious Fraud Office (SFO) has secured £1.1 million from the sale of a house in the Lake District in an investigation involving its first use of an unexplained wealth order.
Investigators traced criminal funds to a five-bedroom property belonging to Claire Schools, ex-wife of a convicted fraudster, Timothy Schools. The house, which includes a two-bedroom lodge, was purchased using money from Schools’ former husband’s multimillion-pound investment scheme fraud involving no win, no fee law firms.
The order was granted at the High Court in January this year, with Claire Schools selling the property in April. Her ex-husband was convicted in 2022 and sentenced to 14 years in prison for defrauding investors.
Car finance redress for a possible 30m people
Nikhil Rathi, chief executive officer of the Financial Conduct Authority
CHRIS J. RATCLIFFE/BLOOMBERG VIA GETTY IMAGES
Around 30 million people could be eligible for compensation under the financial watchdog’s motor finance redress scheme, Nikhil Rathi, chief executive of the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), has told MPs.
He told the Commons Treasury select committee said: “During the period that we’re looking it — from 2007 through to approximately 2020 — there are around 30 million agreements … and all of those will be eligible for compensation. One of the things that we are looking at very closely is what the scope of the scheme will be.”
Rathi was giving evident to the committee about the watchdog’s work on motor finance redress scheme. Rathi said the FCA was consulting on an industry-wide compensation scheme because there was “evidence that there have been unfair relationships between lenders and their consumers”, and that a “large number of consumers were not properly informed” about the interest rate on their motor finance deal.
The consultation is due to be launched by early October, Rathi said, and he hoped compensation could start to be paid next year.
French borrowing costs fall
Francois Bayrou will tender his resignation as prime minister on Tuesday
ADNAN FARZAT/NURPHOTO/SHUTTERSTOCK
French bonds have rallied, lowering the country’s borrowing costs, after the prime minister Francois Bayrou’s government lost a vote of confidence on Monday.
French government bonds, known as OATs, were the best performers in Europe this morning, with the yield on ten-year bonds falling 0.04 percentage points to 3.41 per cent. Yields on ten-year debt in Germany and the UK rose by 0.02 percentage points respectively. Yields rise when the price of a bond falls.
Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg bank, said markets were rallying after pricing in the probability of a government collapse in the last two weeks. Investors expect the country to “muddle through for the time being with meagre growth, somewhat elevated yield spreads, no more than a small fiscal correction”, he said.
President Macron is on the hunt for a new prime minister, his third in 12 months, as France needs to draft budgetary plans to rein in its budget deficit and debt pile. The latest round of political instability and fiscal uncertainty is likely to lead to a downgrade of French debt by Fitch, a ratings agency, on Friday.
ONS reputation has been tarred, ex-chief admits
The former head of the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has admitted that the agency’s reputation has suffered a “major hit” owing to a deterioration in the accuracy of data that it produces to monitor the UK economy.
Responding to questions from MPs on the public administration and constitutional affairs committee, Sir Ian Diamond said the statistics authority faces “serious challenges” in trying to regain trust in its economic statistics. Diamond said that he felt “very sorry for the… thousands of really dedicated public servants who work [for the ONS] who are doing great things”.
The ONS has come under intense scrutiny for allowing response rates to underlying surveys that it uses to generate economic publications — such as its monthly labour market data — to fall sharply. Officials at the Bank of England, including the governor Andrew Bailey, have said the decline in the quality of ONS data had made it tougher to set interest rates.
Earlier this year, Diamond abruptly stepped down as the UK’s chief statistician citing health issues.
Energy business boosts Metlen revenue
Evangelos Mytilineos
JAIMI JOY/BLOOMBERG VIA GETTY IMAGES
Metlen, the newly listed Greek energy and metals group that joins the FTSE 100 index next month, has reported a 45 per cent rise in first-half revenue to €3.6 billion, with 81 per cent of turnover coming from its energy business.
Energy contributed €288.5 million and metallurgy €129.5 million to adjusted profits (Ebitda) of €445.3 million in the six months to the end of June, down from €474 million in the same half last year. Net income fell to €253.8 million from €281.9 million.
The company, formerly known as Mytilineos Energy and Metals, switched its primary stock market listing from Athens to the UK last month in a boost for the London Stock Exchange. Evangelos Mytilineos, chairman and chief executive, declared that it was “very much at home in London”.
French wine production rises
The French wine harvest is likely to be bigger than last year’s
STEPHANE MAHE/REUTERS
French vineyards have fared better than French politicians this year. Wine production in France is expected to reach 37.4 million hectolitres, up 3 per cent from last year when rain hit volumes, the farm ministry said.
However, this is below an initial range of 40-43 million hectolitres indicated last month. The revised forecast is also 13 per cent below the five-year average of 42.9 million hectolitres. A hectolitre is the equivalent of 100 litres, or 133 standard wine bottles.
Meanwhile, France’s CAC 40 index rose 0.3 per cent today after the ousting of the prime minister Francois Bayrou in a no-confidence vote on Monday, although market nervousness was more evident in the bond market as the premium investors demand to hold ten-year French government bonds over benchmark ten-year German bonds rose 6 basis points.
Mobico operates services in 11 countries, including National Express
ARMIR TROTA
Mobico, the transport operator formerly called National Express, has reported a drop in first-half operations profits to £59.9 million from £68.6 million, blaming under-performance of two contracts in WeDriveU, due to operational issues and a competitive trading environment in the UK.
The shares has dropped 22 per cent, or 7p, to 25½p to an all-time low this morning, despite Phil White, the executive chairman, saying that he remains confident of achieving full-year adjusted operating profit guidance of between £180 million and £195 million.
Revenue rose to £1.32 billion in the six months to the end of June, up 8.6 per cent on the £1.24 billion of revenue in the same period last year. Mobico’s share are valued around £156 million.
Stuart Rose: Britain is at the edge of a crisis
Lord Rose of Monewden, the veteran City executive, has warned Britain is on the edge of a crisis unless radical action is taken.
Rose, who has chaired Marks & Spencer, Asda and Ocado, told Times Radio: “I think we should all be worried about the state of Britain today … I believe we’re genuinely at the edge of a crisis. If we don’t take some radical action and take notice of what’s going on, we’re going to find ourselves in a very difficult spot.”
Rose criticised the lack of growth: “We have got no growth in the economy. If you have no growth in the economy, you’re not creating any wealth. If you haven’t got any wealth, you can’t put into the nation the services that voters want and voted for.”
He urged action to make it easier for businesses to operate, rather than burdening them with restrictive legislation such as the Employment Rights Bill. “We have made, we have arrived in a situation in Britain today where there is effectively no obligation to go to work. Absolutely none.”
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Anglo American’s merger with Teck Resources has boosted mining stock and help to buoy London’s leading share index.
The FTSE 100 rose 16 points, or 0.17 per cent, to 9,237.41, with Anglo American rising 5.8 per cent, Glencore up 2.58 per cent and the copper miner Antofagasta gaining 2.56 per cent.
Defence stocks were among the fallers, with the aero-engine maker Rolls-Royce and defence contractor Babcock International slipping 0.96 per cent and 0.82 per cent respectively.
Dunelm: ‘No sign of sustained consumer recovery’
Profits rose at Dunelm
JOHN KEEBLE/GETTY IMAGES
The homewares retailer has reported a “pleasing” start to its new financial year, alongside full-year results, but cautioned that it is “yet to see signs of a sustained consumer recovery”.
The numbers — pre-tax profits up 2.7 per cent at £211 million, on sales up 3.8 per cent at £1.77 billion — should not be a huge surprise following a comprehensive full-year trading update in July.
Nick Wilkinson, the outgoing chief executive, said: “In my final set of results at Dunelm, I’m pleased to report another successful year, marked by growth in sales and profits, increased market share and meaningful strategic progress.”
Dunelm announced in February that Wilkinson was to step down after seven years as chief executive. In July the retailer said that a Sainsbury’s executive, Clodagh Moriarty, would replace him in October.
Water companies face £86m enforcement package
Anglian Water has been penalised by the regulator
ALAMY
The water regulator has confirmed an £86 million penalty against Anglian Water and South West Water over the companies’ failure to maintain their sewage works and networks.
Anglian Water will fund £62.8 million of extra investment to cut storm overflow spills, and South West Water £24 million, Ofwat said.
In July, the water regulator originally announced it would require the enforcement packages from the two suppliers.
Will Glencore spoil the Anglo-Teck deal?
Gary Nagle, chief executive officer of Glencore
JOSE CENDON/BLOOMBERG VIA GETTY IMAGES
Teck Resources rejected a $22.5 billion buyout offer from Glencore in 2023. Glencore later bought Teck’s steelmaking coal business for $6.93 billion. However, the commodities traders and miner has said that it remains interested in a deal.
Glencore has made no comment this morning but there is no doubt that it be looking closely at this nil premium deal.
Teck shares have risen 24 per cent in after-hours trading.
Anglo American saw off a takeover attempt last year by the world’s biggest miner BHP. It has since restructured, divesting or demerging non-core assets such as De Beers and its platinum interest, pivoting towards copper and iron ore.
Duncan Wanblad to run Anglo-Teck
Duncan Wanblad
IAN WALDIE/GETTY IMAGES
Anglo-Teck will be run by Anglo’s chief executive Duncan Wanblad, with Teck Resources’ chief Jonathan Price as his deputy. Anglo finance chief John Heasley be the group’s chief financial officer and Teck’s Sheila Murray will be chair.
The companies said Anglo-Teck would play an enhanced role in Canadian mining, while continuing to maintain a significant role in mining and business leadership in South Africa and the UK.
Wanblad said: “We are unlocking outstanding value both in the near and longer term — forming a global critical minerals champion with the focus, agility, capabilities and culture that have characterised both companies for so long.”
Price said: “This merger of two highly complementary portfolios will create a leading global critical minerals champion headquartered in Canada — a top five global copper producer with exceptional mining and processing assets located across Canada, the United States, Latin America and southern Africa.”
Anglo-Teck will be a top five copper producer
Anglo American and Canada’s Teck Resources are to combine through what they call “a merger of equals” to form a global critical minerals champion, the companies said today.
The combined company will be a top five global copper producer, with around 70 per cent exposure to copper plus premium iron ore and zinc.
It will be called Anglo Teck, with headquarters in Vancouver and a primary listing on the London Stock Exchange plus additional listings in Johannesburg, Toronto and New York.
Investors in Anglo will own 62.4 per cent of the company and Teck investors 37.6 per cent. Anglo American will pay a $4.5 billion special dividend to its shareholders before completion.
The merger is expected to generate annual cost savings and efficiency gains of $800 million by the fourth year after completion. The combined market capitalisation of both companies exceeds $53 billion.
Sick days hit 15-year high
The number of sick days taken by British workers has risen to the highest level in more than 15 years, as bosses are urged to offer staff greater flexibility to help them to stay in employment.
Staff have taken an average of almost two full working weeks off because of illness over the past 12 months, an increase from just over a week before the pandemic, according to a survey from the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD).
• Sick days at highest level in 15 years
Japan to start paying lower US tariffs next week
The cost of exporting cars from Japan to the US is coming down
TORU HANAI/BLOOMBERG VIA GETTY IMAGES
US tariffs on Japanese goods including cars and car parts are set to be lowered by September 16, Japan’s tariff negotiator Ryosei Akazawa said today.
Washington struck a trade deal with Tokyo in July, reducing tariffs to 15 per cent on Japanese goods in exchange for a $550 billion package of US-bound investments and loans. Trump’s signed an executive order last week.
However, Akazawa said that the trade talks were not concluded as the order did not included most-favoured-nation status for pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. He urged the US to formalise a joint statement last week which said Japan would consistently receive the lowest tariff rates on computer chips and pharmaceuticals.