Serbia is a candidate for European Union membership and Hungary has been a full member since 2004, but that hasn’t prevented them from collaborating with Russia to undermine EU cohesion and meddle with efforts to break Europe’s dependency on Russian energy. Ukrainian drones, however, have succeeded in disrupting Belgrade’s and Budapest’s designs.
EU Commissioner for Energy Dan Jørgensen unveiled an ambitious plan in June to stop all Russian oil and natural gas exports to the European Union by 2027. A little over one month later, Hungary and Serbia announced a joint effort to build additional infrastructure that would enable Russian oil exports to reach Serbia via an extension of the Druzhba pipeline. Once built, the pipeline will be able to convey upwards of 5 million tons of oil annually to Serbia. The target completion date is 2027.
A recent analysis published by the Western Balkans Center at New Lines Institute explains how Serbia’s actions are “revealing broader inefficiencies in the EU’s strategy to mitigate external energy influences.”
The analysis states Serbia is pursuing a “deliberate strategy of maneuvering between Russia and China to maximize autonomy while extracting concessions from Brussels. The result is a dual challenge for the EU – Serbia’s continuation of Russian energy dependence that undermines sanctions unity, and resource politics that could anchor Chinese influence at the heart of the Union’s green transition.”
Given Serbia’s EU candidate status, Belgrade’s actions additionally highlight “a broader vulnerability in the EU’s enlargement policy – its inability to prevent candidate states from using external partnerships to evade reform demands necessary for accession.”
As the analysis notes, Serbia’s Druzhba extension plan complicates its negotiations with Brussels on Cluster 4 requirements, which oblige an aspiring member state to harmonize its policies with EU standards concerning the “green agenda and sustainable connectivity.” Among the specific topics that need to be settled are energy supply, infrastructure and the internal energy market. Although the EU opened negotiations with Serbia on Cluster 4 topics in 2021, none of the necessary provisions have been finalized to date.
“The planned pipeline deepens Serbia’s reliance on Russian oil and contradicts EU accession requirements outlined in Cluster 4,” the New Lines analysis states.
In August, Ukrainian drone attacks on the Druzhba pipeline on Russian territory raised questions about the utility of the Serbian pipeline extension plan. The damage done to the Unecha pumping station in one of those strikes caused a disruption to Europe-bound oil shipments, prompting complaints by Hungary and Slovakia. Despite EU efforts to wean itself off Russian energy, Druzhba remains a vital supply conduit for both Budapest and Bratislava.
In the aftermath of the August attacks, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky suggested that Kyiv might target Druzhba again, unless Hungary moderates its stance on hindering EU assistance to Ukraine, including a block on accession. “We have always supported friendship between Ukraine and Hungary. And now the existence of Druzhba [which means ‘friendship’ in Ukrainian] depends on Hungary’s position,” Zelensky said. Hungarian leader Viktor Orban, in turn, warned Zelensky that further Ukrainian efforts disrupt the Hungary-bound flow of Russian oil would have big consequences for Kyiv.
Regardless of whether Ukraine mounts new strikes on Druzhba, the proposal of a Serbian pipeline extension presents a serious challenge to the EU’s cohesion, the New Lines analysis underscores.
“Serbian geopolitical maneuvering involving Russia is dangerous to European geopolitical stability and prosperity,” the analysis states. “Russia has historically capitalized on destabilization and conflict in the Western Balkans. This further diverts the region from EU democratic norms and allows Russia to extend its influence in Europe, despite EU sanctions.”
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