European Union economic data are robust and trustworthy because their production is underpinned by independence, according to the European Central Bank’s statistics chief.
Some 16 years after Greece’s drastic deficit revisions set off the region’s debt crisis, the region’s system of compiling numbers that support important policy decisions — including interest-rate setting — is operating to the “highest standards,” Claudia Mann wrote in a blog published on the ECB’s website.
While the structure and joint responsibility of regional and national authorities might appear complicated and therefore open to making mistakes, the opposite turns out to be the case, she said.
“Our governance is complex, multilateral and sometimes feels intrusive,” Mann wrote. “This, however, is a strength. Our thinking is exposed to many stakeholders early on. So, any attempt at manipulation would not only be unlawful – it would be practically impossible.”
Data in the EU are produced by the European Statistical System — made up of Eurostat and the national statistical offices — and the European System of Central Banks, composed of the ECB and the national central banks.
Her blog comes at a time of heightened scrutiny on those compiling reports about economic performance, and amid concerns that statistical agencies are at risk of being politicized.
In the US, President Donald Trump fired the Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner after significant data revisions, accusing her of incompetence. The UK statistics office recently launched a new attempt to improve the quality of its reports after first running into major problems with its labor market survey almost two years ago.
Europe reinforced statistical independence following the Greek crisis, when the then-head of the country’s statistics authority, Andreas Georgiou, was accused of allegedly conspiring to artificially inflate the 2009 government deficit figures while these numbers were validated by Eurostat.
“The independence of statisticians and statistical offices from direct political or market pressure is one precondition for good statistics, and in the case of central banks, this independence is firmly safeguarded too,” Mann wrote. “Equally important are transparent and robust statistical processes, which allow for sources and methods to be scrutinized,” as well as sound quality management that “ensures that errors are corrected, and improvements are made when necessary.”