As Canadian farmers push through the final stages of harvest, grain and oilseed markets remain locked in a sideways trading pattern, with prices under pressure across key commodities. Bruce Burnett, Director of Markets and Weather for Glacier FarmMedia, shared insights into the current market dynamics, highlighting the challenges and opportunities facing producers this fall.
Spring wheat has seen a notable sell-off over the past month, with prices settling near recent contract lows. Despite intermittent rallies, the market continues to retrace gains, resulting in a choppy, sideways trend. Burnett explained that this pattern is likely to persist until the U.S. corn harvest is complete. Once that crop is in the bin, grains—especially corn and wheat—may get a chance to rally.
Encouragingly, wheat demand remains robust. According to the Canadian Grain Commission, export shipments are ahead of last year’s record pace. However, prices are expected to stay subdued until harvest pressures ease.
Durum wheat is also under pressure, with Statistics Canada reporting a larger-than-expected crop. The late summer rains in Saskatchewan led to regrowth in fields, resulting in a wide spectrum of grades. Farmers are harvesting two types of crops—the mature heads and the secondary tillers. This variability in quality will make marketing more challenging compared to last year’s top-grade harvest.
Looking ahead, Burnett expects durum to follow the price movements of spring wheat, with limited upside due to an ample global supply.
Canola markets are mirroring wheat’s sideways trend, largely due to China’s ongoing tariffs on Canadian canola. Export demand has dropped significantly, and the market is struggling to find direction. He points out that until the China issue is resolved, a meaningful rally is unlikely to occur. The drop in U.S. soybean purchases by China is also impacting the Canadian market.
He says on the positive side vegetable oil prices, particularly soybean oil, have held up well, providing some support to canola. If prices remain near the 50-cent-per-pound level and harvest pressures subside, canola could see modest gains.
Across the board, Canadian grain and oilseed markets are in a holding pattern. With strong demand but uncertain quality and trade conditions, producers may need to wait until the North American harvest wraps up before seeing any significant price movement.
Overall, he says the fundamentals are there, but until harvest and trade issues are resolved, markets will likely remain stuck in neutral.