New data from the Nationwide will be interesting reading for investors wondering where to invest next – snd in what.
Over the past three months (July, August, September) Northern Ireland remained the strongest performer by a wide margin, with annual house price growth of 9.6% in Q3. This echoes trends seen in the border regions of Ireland in recent quarters.
Wales saw a slight increase in annual house price growth to 3.0% (up from 2.6% in Q2), while growth in Scotland slowed to 2.9% (compared with 4.5% last quarter).
England saw a further slowing in annual house price growth to 1.6%, from 2.5% in Q2. Average prices in Northern England (comprising North, North West, Yorkshire & The Humber, East Midlands and West Midlands) were up 3.4% year on year, with the North (which incorporates areas, such as Tyneside, Teesside and Cumbria) the top performing region in England – with prices up 5.1% year on year.
Meanwhile average house price growth in Southern England (South West, Outer South East, Outer Metropolitan, London and East Anglia) slowed to 0.7%. This was driven by a marked softening in price growth in Outer Metropolitan and Outer South East, the latter being the weakest performing region, with annual growth of 0.3% (down from 2.6% last quarter).
The Nationwide’s most recent data by property type shows that semi-detached properties have seen the biggest percentage rise in prices over the last 12 months, with average prices up 3.4% year on year.
Detached and terraced properties saw similar growth, at 2.5% and 2.4% respectively. However, flats saw a small year-on-year decline of 0.3%. Looking over the longer term, flats have seen noticeably weaker growth than other property types in recent years. For example, over the last 10 years, the price of a typical flat has increased by around 20%, less than half of the rise in the price of terraced houses over the same period.
Meanwhile the Nationwide’s monthly house price index shows a modest start to autumn.
The annual pace of UK house price growth was little changed in September at 2.2%, marginally stronger than the 2.1% recorded in August. Prices increased by 0.5% month on month, after taking account of seasonal effects.
The broad stability in the annual rate of house price growth over the past three months mirrors that of activity. The number of mortgages approved for house purchase have been hovering at around 65,000 cases per month, close to the pre-pandemic average (despite the higher interest rate environment).
Chief economist Robert Gardner says: “Despite ongoing uncertainties in the global economy, underlying conditions for potential home buyers in the UK remain supportive.
“Unemployment is low, earnings are rising at a healthy pace, household balance sheets are strong and borrowing costs are likely to moderate a little further if Bank Rate is lowered in the coming quarters as we, and most other analysts, expect.
“Providing the broader economic recovery is maintained, housing market activity is likely to strengthen gradually in the quarters ahead.