With Liverpool having lost their second Champions League game, we took a look at how many points Arne Slot‘s side could need to finish in the top eight.
The new format of the Champions League was a learning experience for everyone last year. This time around, though, we can make a better prediction as to how Liverpool can plot their route through the league phase.
Having beaten Atletico Madrid and lost to Galatasaray, Liverpool have three points with six matches left to play.
Should they finish in the top eight of the 36-team table, they will progress automatically to the last 16 of the competition.
However, if they were to finish from ninth to 24th, they would play an extra two-legged tie in mid-February, a period already packed with fixtures.
It would take a disastrous run of form for Liverpool for them to finish below 24th – last year, Club Brugge qualified with 11 points – but that isn’t the Reds’ target.
Instead, Slot’s side have their sights set on another top-eight finish.
Last season’s eighth-place team, Aston Villa, achieved 16 points from their eight matches, one more than ninth-place Atalanta.
To reach that total of 16 points, Liverpool need to take another 13 points from their remaining six games.
Liverpool’s remaining fixtures: Frankfurt (A), Real Madrid (H), PSV (H), Inter (A), Marseille (A), Qarabag (H)
An extra advantage of finishing top
As mentioned, should Liverpool finish in the top eight, they will avoid the play-off round in February.
However, there is another advantage that has been added this season as the best-placed teams will have their second legs at home.
The teams that finish in the top four, will play the second leg of their quarter-final tie at home.
In addition, the top two will play the second leg of their semi-final tie at home if they progress to that stage.
However, if one of these seeded teams are beaten in any round, the team that eliminates them takes over their home advantage.
This could be significant for Liverpool given the power Anfield can possess when the Reds need a result.
Liverpool’s change in approach
Last time around, Liverpool breezed through the league phase, winning their opening seven matches before losing their dead rubber at PSV.
Despite finishing top of the table, they still had to play eventual winners Paris Saint-Germain in the last 16, due to their 15th-place finish in the league phase.
While this was a case of bad luck for Liverpool, it did show there isn’t a significant advantage to be held from finishing at the very top.
As long as the Reds achieve a top-eight ranking, they should be happy and as far back as last December, Slot hinted as much.
“It is so difficult to say anything about this,” the head coach said on the importance of finishing top of the Champions League table.
“I have said it many times, but at the end of the season you can judge it in the best possible way – if it’s helpful to end up in the top eight, and if it’s helpful to end up as No. 1.
“Of course, it seems to be really helpful to end up in the first eight, but if every time you play your starters, which we have done until now almost every time, then you also need the results.
“We try to do this to, first of all, to be in the highest possible position, but also to skip the next round.
“If in the end, it means by playing your starters always, skipping that round and still having a very difficult draw, then we maybe are going to think about it differently next season, what we are going to do in the group stage.”
While Liverpool’s loss to Galatasaray is far from a disaster in terms of the points lost, what is more concerning is the manner of defeat as the Reds again put in a lacklustre performance.