Up to a dozen supporters of the shadow justice secretary are said to have penned letters to use against Kemi Badenoch when the time is right

Allies of Robert Jenrick are collecting no-confidence letters from Conservative MPs calling for party leader Kemi Badenoch to quit, The i Paper has been told.

Up to a dozen supporters of the shadow justice secretary are said to have penned letters, being held back for deployment after 3 November to use in a “show of strength” to urge Badenoch to step down “when the time is right”.

That’s the date when she can be formally challenged, as she was given immunity from removal for a year after she took over the party.

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Jenrick’s team denied he was involved or had any knowledge of the plans. “This is bollocks,” a spokesman said, adding no friend of the senior Tory would make these claims. A spokesman for Badenoch declined to comment.

However, the briefing shows the extent of Jenrick’s ambition and adds to the pressure Badenoch faces on the eve of Conservative Party Conference, which kicks off in Manchester on Sunday. She is seeking to persuade her MPs and grassroots she can stave off the threat posed by Reform UK amid dire poll ratings that put the Tories in third behind Farage’s party and Labour.

Sources said up to 12 letters of no confidence had already been written, but are yet to be submitted to Bob Blackman. He is chairman of the backbench 1922 Committee and would normally file letters until the threshold for challenge had been reached. By holding on to the letters, the allies of Jenrick remain in greater control of any potential challenge.

Recent rule changes now require a move by 30 per cent of the Parliamentary party or 36 letters of no-confidence. They would then hold a ballot.

Even if Badenoch were to win a prospective vote, it would be a dent in her authority and allow her political opponents free rein. When Theresa May was prime minister, she survived a vote of no-confidence from her own MPs. Although in theory she was immune from challenge for a year, the vote itself heralded her authority ebbing away.

Fears Conservative party will struggle to survive without change of leader

Some Tories are increasingly pushing for Jenrick to challenge Badenoch soon after her immunity ends, fearful that waiting until after next May’s local elections may be “too late” to save hundreds of council seats.

“I don’t know anyone who now doesn’t think she will be gone either in November or May. November is possible because that’s when the rules change for a challenge,” a Conservative MP told The i Paper. “So, the judgment is, do you just do it fast? Because we just don’t have any time. And if you wait until after May, then what party is left?”

“We were on about 26 points in the polls about the time she became leader, and there was a poll the other day that put us on 14 points. This is really f***ing serious stuff,” the MP added.

A YouGov poll published on Friday found 20 per cent of voters believe Badenoch has done well as Conservative leader, while 45 per cent think she has done badly.

Another Tory MP said if May’s Scottish, Welsh and local English elections are a wipeout for the Tories, “we would definitely need a quick and smooth transition”.

“I think it is probably likely to be Rob. But I also think that whoever takes over, we can’t have a five-month national leadership contest. The membership would probably accept that we can’t have a prolonged contest in the middle of the Parliament,” the MP added.

There is an advantage to Jenrick’s allies moving early, another Conservative MP suggested. “If there is a contest in November or even December, the chances are it would be a coronation for Rob. If it goes into next summer, who knows? There might be other people who chuck their hat in,” the MP said.

Badenoch’s allies hope tougher policies will galvanise supporters

Allies of Badenoch hope a policy rollout in Manchester will galvanise supporters. On Thursday she told BBC local radio she would unveil “even tougher policies” than Labour or Reform.

“This is likely to be a very policy-heavy conference,” a Conservative aide said.

She has already announced she will scrap legally binding targets for cutting greenhouse gas emissions if elected, prioritising economic growth and cheaper energy instead.

Badenoch will use a speech on Sunday to explain why the Tories would exit the European Convention on Human Rights, part of a drive to halt small boat crossings. Allies say that because she can explain her reasoning, she will better defend her policies to voters.

“I think there is a way of seeing conference that works in her favour. This is her first conference as leader of a party that voted for her last year. She said there’s going to be a lot of big announcements, putting a lot of meat on the bones of what we’ve been thinking about already. And that is a real opportunity for her to take the initiative, but in a way that is bombproof,” a Shadow Cabinet minister said.

“Because the problem with Reform’s policy announcements is that they all collapse within a few hours,” they added.

Difficult elections loom

The senior Conservative also admitted the parliamentary Tory Party is divided on whether to remove Badenoch and install a new leader. “I think there’s still a big split what to do. There is a cohort of people, particularly if they’ve got all-out unitary elections in England… where there is a real risk of the party facing horrific haemorrhaging – they are just like: ‘We can’t go into these elections like we’re just walking into machine gun fire’.”

Meanwhile, Tory grandee John Redwood said he was sceptical of the appetite in the Conservative party to change leader now.

“They are not so stupid,” he said. “They know that the last thing the Conservatives need now is infighting. Labour is so good at doing that and watch as their poll ratings plunge as a result.

“The Conservative party is willing Kemi to succeed and likes her fresh start based on careful thinking. Her new approach to net zero and her realism on welfare reform and the need to curb spending is crucial. The need to stop foreign courts and treaties getting in the way of controlling our borders is popular with the party and is just what the country needs as Labour fails to live up to its promises on illegal migration, growth and energy prices.”

In Manchester, Badenoch has given herself space in case Jenrick, or others, go off message. “I think people should just speak freely, no matter what the consequences are. I don’t mind people straying a little bit off piste,” she told The Spectator this week. She also took a swipe at Jenrick, who has been vocal with his own opinions. “Yes, but most of them are my thoughts repackaged,” she told the magazine.

Some Conservatives expect Jenrick to make a show of loyalty at the Manchester convention. “I think he’s fully aware that he is the king over the water, right? I think for him to be seen to be doing anything else would hurt him,” a Conservative MP remarked.

Others think a challenge to Badenoch will become obvious, as the polls clearly show she cannot turn the Tories’ fortunes around.

“I think this is the last-chance saloon for Kemi’s leadership strategy. We have flat-lined over the last 10 months in the polls, and we’re now in a very solid third place, and I think that we all want to do better. So, the conference is really the last chance to inject energy, excitement and a sense of direction before May’s local elections,” a Conservative MP said.