Over the last year, France has been falling prey to a rising “no kids” movement. As the country’s High Commissioner for Children, Sarah El-Haïry, warned in May: “I am quite frightened, and I weigh my words, by the development of movements, of ‘no kids’ spaces, where children are no longer welcome, where children are made invisible, even forbidden.” She went on: “It prioritises the comfort of adults at the expense of the inclusion and wellbeing of the younger generation.”

A number of hotels and campsites in France have begun banning children under the ages of 12, 14, or 16, prompting parliament to draft a bill to prohibit such practices. More generally, hostility towards children seems to be growing. In Maisons-Laffitte, an affluent suburb west of Paris, a court ruled that the noise from children playing in the playground of a private Montessori International school constituted a “disturbance” for neighbouring residents. The decision led to the closure of the playground after pensioners and work-from-home professionals argued that nearby students would harm their health and lower the value of their properties. After an appeal, the ban is to be maintained for the lengh of a “mediation”.

For centuries, France was the continent’s demographic titan, earning the nickname of the “China of Europe”. In 1500, its population exceeded 16 million, while England’s remained below three million. But three centuries later, France became the first European country to experience the modern phenomenon of “demographic transition”, marked by a rapid decline in birth rates. The causes of this decline remain hotly debated, yet the geopolitical consequences were clear: neighbouring Germany soon rose as Europe’s demographic powerhouse and faced France, often outnumbering it, in three major conflicts between 1870 and 1945.

After the war, France’s birth rates rebounded, buoyed by vigorous public policies. The country maintained a fertility rate between 2.5 and 3 until the Seventies, before stabilising at around 2. As economist Maxime Sbaihi put it, postwar France became “one big playground teeming with baby boomer kids”. Over the last decade, however, fertility has collapsed, mirroring a global trend, and the country now finds itself embroiled in a new demographic debate.

This is not to suggest that the no-kids movement is uniquely French. In 2023, some 1,600 hotels worldwide had age restrictions on guests — double the number in 2016 — though it remains a marginal phenomenon. France also does not appear unusually hostile to children compared with other European countries. In Belgium, for example, one in 10 restaurants bans children.

But this decline in fertility is unfolding alongside France’s politico-fiscal crisis. With a shrinking working-age population supporting a growing number of retirees, the country’s pay-as-you-go pension system is under strain, dragging down public finances in the process. On average, for every €100 an employer pays an employee, only €54 reaches the worker, while €28 goes toward pensions. This rising tax burden makes it difficult for young professionals to start families, worsening future imbalances. The result is a “baby doom loop”, accelerated by politicians increasingly catering to the expanding grey vote.

But it would be wrong to blame the surge of this movement purely on Boomers. A poll from Odoxa found that 54% support the development of adult-only areas, with only 53% of the 65+ age category in agreement versus 65% for those aged 25 to 34. Clearly, a society that is less used to being surrounded by children will become less accommodating of their occasional presence.

Millennials and members of Generation Z in France also report wanting fewer kids than before. As many as 13% of women want no children at all, a number that rises to 25% and 23% among self-identified “very feminist” and “very ecological” respondents. Meanwhile, among women under 30, the desired number of children has fallen from 2.5 in 1998 to 1.9 today. This remains above the current fertility rate of 1.66, suggesting that, alongside the rise of eco-anxious discourse and concerns over balancing a career with family life, economic factors are also influencing decisions about having children. No wonder, then, that President Emmanuel Macron himself addressed it, calling for a “demographic rearmament”.

Amid France’s many demographic fears, the current debate – whether it focuses on marginal phenomena such as hotels banning kids or more structural ones – has massive stakes. The outcome will have consequences for decades to come.