ignificant movement in the prime central London market may now be effectively over until 2026 – giving an opportunity for canny investors to act.
That’s the view of Jo Eccles, founder and managing director of prime London buying agency Eccord.
She says the Budget – still almost two months away – is having a dampening effect on buyers.
“With the Budget scheduled for the end of November and the holiday season immediately after, in reality this means many will wait on the sidelines until early 2026” suggests Eccles.
But she says there’s a narrow window of opportunity for investors prepared to transact before the end of the year, with many of what she calls “fatigued sellers” – some who have been on and off the market for the last two years – eager to secure a quick, clean sale in the next three months.
She continues: “Houses are proving more resilient than apartments, supported by domestic and needs-based demand. One £4.4m house we were considering for a client in Hampstead had three serious buyers and a full asking price cash offer within one week of coming to the market.
“The top end above £10m remains discretionary and is experiencing the greatest downward pressure on prices, as the pool of buyers has shrunk since the end of the non-dom regime and many are holding off buying until there is more tax certainty.
“However, high value transactions are happening, for example a £24m apartment in Kensington has just exchanged within a week. High net worth buyers are acting decisively when they see genuine value and opportunity.”
Despite the caution governing the market, she says some investors are still buying.
“At an institutional level, there has been a recent influx of international developers backing London for the long-term.
“For example Arada, a Dubai-based developer backed by UAE and Saudi royalty, has just acquired a £230m majority stake in high-end developer Regal, and Norges Bank has recently made a £306m investment in Mayfair and a £570m purchase of a 25% stake in the Covent Garden estate.
“On an individual level, UK universities remain a significant draw and we’re seeing a growing number of European families considering buying a property here for children who are studying in the UK for degrees and masters, and are likely to remain when they start their careers. This cohort will wait for further tax certainty in November, but buying a London property over the mid-term is strongly on the cards for them.
“American buyers also continue to make up a significant proportion of our client base, either relocating here full time or acquiring pieds-à-terre in case they wish to live here in the future.
“This is being fuelled by political uncertainty, but specifically over the past month or so, a growing nervousness about potential future restrictions over the movement of capital from the US.”