The biggest threat to Bath making it a perfect three wins and three bonus points to start the season isn’t injury-hit Gloucester — it’s overconfidence.
While the Cherry and Whites are arguably not as powerful in terms of personnel as they were last season — having lost their playmaker, Santiago Carreras, to Bath — the defending champions have boosted the quality of their squad.
Gloucester travel down the M5 for Saturday’s West Country derby with nothing but a smattering of bonus points to show from the first two rounds of Prem action. By contrast, Bath have a maximum ten points, having negotiated a difficult Friday night against a Sale Sharks side that beat Gloucester on the opening weekend.
Cameron Redpath scored Bath’s second try against Sale to help them take maximum points from their first two games
MICHAEL STEELE/GETTY IMAGES
Last season Bath beat Gloucester 55-31 at Kingsholm and 42-26 at the Recreation Ground, not to mention a 61-26 victory in the Challenge Cup quarter-final. That’s 23 tries in the three fixtures. Bath’s six straight victories against their traditional rivals give them a potentially extraordinary psychological edge, especially with so many high-scoring victories in recent years.
Gloucester’s defence was porous in the first half against Northampton Saints last Sunday. Rory Hutchinson, the outstanding Scotland centre, ghosted through their midfield at will. What George Skivington, Gloucester’s director of rugby, would give for the organisational skills of the veteran Lions centre, Chris Harris, to check the charging Ollie Lawrence against Bath — but Harris, like Carreras, has jumped ship to their local rivals. Admittedly Gloucester fought their way back and ended up losing by only two points against Saints, but that was as much down to a full-scale collapse from the visiting side as a sensational fightback from their hosts.
Whereas Northampton had a bench full of newcomers, Bath — even with their second-row injury list — have replacements that boost them in the final quarter. They also have half backs (Max Ojomoh can be included in the list after last Friday) who ensure they play in the right parts of the field.
On paper Gloucester are in for a hiding, with a four-try bonus point the limit of their aspirations. On paper. Yet there are reasons why the Shed should hold out hopes for what would be a stunning away victory. In Johann van Graan’s three full seasons in charge of Bath he has yet to win in the third round of matches.
Van Graan is yet to guide Bath to victory in the third game of a Premiership season
BOB BRADFORD/CAMERASPORT/GETTY IMAGES
An irrelevant coincidence? In 2022-23 Bath lost to Wasps in their third game — one of seven straight defeats to start a new era under the South African, who inherited a side that finished bottom the previous campaign. However, two seasons ago they lost their third game against Leicester Tigers at home, having won their first two matches, while in their title-winning campaign Bristol Bears ran all over the highly hyped Bath at the Rec. Again, Bath had won their first two matches. A prominent former player shook his head after the game and told me: “The problem is they believe what everyone’s saying about them . . .”
And here we are again, two wins from two, this time on the verge of meeting one of their other West Country foes. It’s hard to find anyone tipping against Bath retaining the Prem title, let alone winning this match. Papers, podcasts, television and internet. All you read, see, hear is “Bath, Bath, Bath”.
Just as overconfidence apparently caught them out in the previous two campaigns, so too might hubris rear its head on Saturday — at least if Gloucester are able to stay in contention. Against Sale it was fascinating to watch Bath turn down the chance to take straightforward penalty kicks at goal in the second half to increase a five-point lead to eight in atrocious conditions where every point counted.
On four or five occasions the captain, Ben Spencer, opted to kick to the corner instead of the posts where the elements, some dubious throwing and staunch Sale defence repelled Bath. Eventually the territorial pressure paid off through Ojomoh’s late try, but there is a fine line between self-belief and a touch of hubris. Bath played that second half as if they were 15, not five, points ahead.
Bath’s 64-0 thrashing by Gloucester in April 2022 became a turning point in the club’s fortunes
MICHAEL STEELE/GETTY IMAGES
In the Premiership final at Twickenham last summer there was never any doubt that Finn Russell would go for the posts after Dan Cole’s silly late tackle. It is a lesson that Bath should remember. Had Russell been the fly half against Sale, I wonder whether he would have whispered words of advice to his scrum half and skipper, Spencer, and taken some of those easy points. Gloucester will be delighted if Bath, entering the last quarter, still have the conundrum of whether to kick three points or go for the corner.
When Gloucester beat Bath 64-0 towards the end of the 2021-22 season it was heralded as their finest win of the campaign yet, in the long term, it might just have been one of the best results in Bath’s history. Back then Stuart Hooper was the man in charge but the scale of the defeat was too much for a board that had remained loyal to him for too long, so Van Graan, who was due to arrive as head coach in the summer, was promoted to head of rugby for the start of the next season. Since then, the rise has been impressive.
But is that rise unstoppable? Can Bath take on the super French duo of Bordeaux and Toulouse? They have the squad to target a domestic and European double but Van Graan is a long-term strategist. Cementing their position as England’s leading team is no formality. The Prem is their focus, Europe the bonus — for now.
As for Saturday’s derby, Bath must walk the line somewhere between self-belief and overconfidence.
Bath v Gloucester
Gallagher Prem, the Recreation Ground
Saturday, 5.30pm
Live on TNT Sports 1