The pace of consumer migration to the free energy market in Brazil is slowing, reflecting the structural rise in prices in the sector.
According to data from the Electric Energy Commercialization Chamber ( CCEE ), 1,133 migrations were recorded in August 2025, compared to 2,024 in the same month of 2024.
According to Fred Menezes, trading director at Armor Energia, the maximum Difference Settlement Price (PLD) for 2025, set by Aneel at R$751.73 (US$140,41)/MWh – the highest since the implementation of the current model – illustrates the new cost level in the market.
The transition from a predominantly hydroelectric matrix to a more diversified one, with intermittent renewable sources , flexible thermal power, and investments in storage, has increased average costs. At the same time, expiration of concessions for incentivized plants and sectoral charges further pressure prices.
Menezes predicts a “slightly reduced” migration speed in the coming months due to higher prices in the dry period window.
“Something around 1,600 new consumers per month over the next six months,” he told BNamericas.
Despite the challenging scenario, migration to the ACL has not lost its appeal, according to Menezes. Contracts with a fixed price or guaranteed discount on the regulated tariff have gained popularity because they offer predictability in a more volatile environment—a characteristic increasingly valued by businesses and consumers.
“The market’s stance today is one of caution. Consumers and retailers are paying more attention to risk management and regulatory changes. But this behavior is a sign of maturity, not decline. The free market is more demanding,” Menezes assessed.
Opening for low voltage
In early September, the federal government opened a public consultation to discuss the full opening of the free electricity market. The topic is also expected to be debated by the National Congress under Provisional Measure (MP) 1.304/25 .
Regarding the challenges of enabling the migration of low-voltage consumers to the ACL, Menezes highlighted that the systems need to be more robust, as the scale will increase from thousands to millions of consumers.
“The free market’s management capacity needs to undergo a technological transformation to be able to process this amount of data,” he stated.
He also considers it possible that costs will increase – and, consequently, prices on the free market – given the need to amortize investments in new systems.
New generation projects
While the increase in the PLD represents a challenge for consumers, the scenario serves as an incentive for developers of new generation projects, facilitating economic viability. However, the increasing incidence of curtailment poses a barrier .
” Curtailment is certainly a significant source of uncertainty that makes new renewable energy projects less attractive. I believe the operator’s priority has been to diversify the energy matrix,” Menezes analyzed.
Inflation
With the end of the incorporation of the Itaipu Bonus , credited in the invoices issued in August, residential electricity — in the regulated market, therefore — rose 10.31% in September, standing out as the main individual impact on the broad consumer price index (IPCA) of the month (0.41 pp), according to the IBGE.
The federal institute also highlighted the continued validity of the red tariff flag level 2, starting September 1st , adding R$7.87 to the electricity bill for every 100 kWh consumed. For October, Aneel activated the red flag level 1, with an additional R$4.46/100 kWh.
Federal subsidy
On Thursday (October 9), President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva sanctioned the People’s Light Law , a program that ensures free electricity for low-income families.
With an estimated cost of up to R$10 billion per year, Luz do Povo will be financed by the Energy Development Account ( CDE ), the fund responsible for promoting and financing sectoral policies. The program will benefit more than 17 million families in its first phase.
(The original version of this content was written in Portuguese)