A fresh push for Scottish independence could benefit Nigel Farage north of the border, say pollsters
Reform UK’s remarkable rise north of the border has damaged both the SNP and Labour’s hopes of winning next year’s Holyrood election in Scotland, experts believe.
The SNP’s fresh push for Scottish independence could further boost Reform’s popularity among pro-union voters who “hate” the idea, say political experts.
Sir Keir Starmer has been warned that Reform’s surge could see Scottish Labour’s vote squeezed on both the left and right at the May 2026 election.
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Labour’s chances of ousting the SNP in Edinburgh have been significantly hurt by a surge in support for Nigel Farage’s party in Scotland over the past year.
The Norstad survey puts Farage’s party up on 20 per cent in the constituency vote, while Anas Sarwar’s party fell to 19 per cent.
The SNP are out in front on 34 per cent – roughly in line with polls over the past six months. But that kind of result would leave the party short of the majority leader John Swinney so badly wants, say pollsters.
SNP members backed Swinney’s plan to achieve another Scottish independence referendum at the party’s conference in Aberdeen.
The First Minister’s strategy is to declare a mandate for a second referendum so long his party wins a majority of seats – 65 or more – at the 2026 Holyrood election.
Independence push ‘opens up space’ for Reform
Polling expert Mark Diffley said Reform they could be the “beneficiaries” if the SNP makes Scottish independence a major issue in the election campaign.
“There is a danger [for the SNP] in coming across as obsessed with something [independence] that is not most voters’ priority at the moment,” said the founder of The Diffley Partnership consultancy.
“It opens up a space for others – the Tories and Reform – to make capital out of it, arguing that the SNP is out of touch.”
John Swinney has been warned Reform stands to gain from anti-independence sentiment (Photo: Jane Barlow/PA Wire)
Allan Faulds, who runs the Ballot Box Scotland poll tracker, said Reform were poised to win many of the voters who “hate” the SNP and the idea of independence.
“Some voters are still interested in which party is the strongest pro-union party – strongest is in terms of message, strongest in terms of giving the SNP a bloody nose, as well as doing well in the polls. Reform has already won a lot of those people over.”
Prof James Mitchell, Edinburgh University’s professor of public policy, also warned that the SNP’s so-called “indyref2” push “could help Reform” by boosting support among pro-union hardliners.
However, Prof Mitchell said the problem for Reform is that many Scots are “totally fed-up with the independence question” and are more focused on public services, the economy and immigration.
So even if Reform attracts a lot of anti-SNP voters anxious about independence “it would be foolish for Reform to actually talk about it [independence] too much”, he added.
Diffley added: “It’s what Reform are saying on immigration that appears to be bringing voters over to them at the moment.”
Caption: Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar (left) with Keir Starmer (Photo: Jane Barlow/PA Wire)
Reform’s Glasgow councillor Thomas Kerr, who defected from the Tories, said: “The SNP banging on about their separation obsession – it will benefit Reform, because we can argue why want to remain part of the UK.”
“But the majority of the public is so tuned out from the independence question. So it’s not going to be a central focus for us or our manifesto.”
Last month’s Norstat poll found that 56 per cent of Scots think immigration is are too high, and 60 per cent backed the idea of mass detention and deportation of illegal immigrants.
Frustration with the Labour Government at Westminster on the economy and immigration – including small boat crossings and asylum hotels – has hurt Sarwar’s hopes of becoming First Minister in 2026.
If those two issues prove key in the votes north of the border, it is feared English council may soon follow, especially after Reform’s performance at the local where the party gained ten council and 677 councillors.
Moreover, if the north of the border is a barometer of the nation’s mood, it suggests the Government is failing to cut through on key topics.
Labour vote faces squeeze by both SNP and Reform
Reform has won over anti-SNP voters on the right from Labour in the past year, said Faulds of Ballot Box Scotland.
But there is also a prospect of Labour losing left-wing voters who fear Reform to the SNP, he and other experts warned.
Swinney has pounced on some Scots’ fears about Reform – warning that Farage “poses a threat to our values” – in the hope of winning support from traditional Labour voters.
“The SNP needs a strong Reform,” Prof Mitchell told The i Paper. “It splits the pro-union opposition. And it might well scare some more Labour voters who don’t like Farage into voting for the SNP.”
However, not everyone inside the SNP is convinced Swinney has the right strategy on dealing with Reform.
Former SNP MP Tommy Sheppard has previously warned that “bigging up your opponent is just daft” – blaming Swinney for this year’s Hamilton by-election defeat to Labour by talking too much about Reform.
One SNP source told The i Paper that continually warning of the threat posed by Reform UK could backfire and anger voters somewhat sympathetic to Farage’s party.
“In Hamilton [by-election] we pitched it as battle between Reform and the SNP, and it didn’t work. It’s not a one-way street. We can lose voters to Reform too,” they warned.
One glimmer of hope for Scottish Labour is that both the SNP and Reform turn off floating voters by obsessing about independence and each other, said Prof Mitchell.
“If the SNP and Reform are talking about independence question, it leaves the field open to Labour to talk about voters’ big priorities – education, NHS, public services and the economy.”
The stakes are high. Swinney has even claimed that a majority SNP victory in 2026 could see Starmer replaced as Labour leader and PM.
“I think if I win a majority in the Scottish Parliament next year, I think Keir Starmer won’t be the Prime Minister, and I’ll be negotiating [on independence] with somebody else,” he told LBC.
Nicola Sturgeon backed Swinney’s strategy after the current leader told SNP members in Aberdeen that “nobody knows” the tactics he will deploy to win a majority.
The former First Minister said: “I’ve known John Swinney for a long, long time and if he says he has a secret plan, he has a secret plan.”
Scottish Labour’s deputy leader Jackie Baillie MSP said Swinney’s “independence obsession” was “a sign of a government running out of ideas”. The SNP was contacted for comment.