Good Thursday morning. This is Sam Blewett.
DRIVING THE DAY
NOTHING TO XI HERE: Keir Starmer finally hit the transparency switch late last night in an attempt to end the row over the collapsed Chinese espionage case. Yet in doing so, the prime minister has provoked fresh questions both for himself and the Crown Prosecution Service. This story has now fully gripped the news agenda, and the extraordinary fresh evidence of Beijing’s snooping on Britain — alongside curiously warm words about the government desiring a “positive” relationship — make it clearer than ever there was a major f*ckup somewhere. All those involved are pointing the finger at someone else, naturally.
For the non-night owls: At 9.33 p.m. the government finally lived up to Starmer’s PMQs promise and published the three witness statements by deputy national security adviser Matthew Collins. One was written under the last Tory government that the PM has been trying to pin this all on, and two under his administration. (Officials had to clarify that the second statement was dated February 2024 in error and actually pertained to February of this year. Yep, really.)
Moving on … the evidence contained in the initial statement both against the Chinese state and the two men accused in the collapsed case is really something. The “highly capable” Chinese Intelligence Services were described as conducting “large scale espionage operations” to advance Beijing’s objectives and “harm the interests and security of the U.K.” The Newport Wafer Fab semiconductor plant and even Tory leadership rumblings are named as being of interest. China is described as posing a threat throughout the documents.
**A message from Rolls-Royce: Rolls-Royce is an engine for growth and proud partner to the UK’s Armed Forces. The UK needs a strong defence industry, driving economic growth and creating high-skilled jobs. Our sovereign nuclear and gas turbine capabilities are a strategic national asset that can support the Government’s endeavour to strengthen national security.**
Beijing parry: The case Collins outlines against former parliamentary researcher Christopher Cash, 30, and academic Christopher Berry, 33, is really something, too. They’re accused of collaborating with a senior Chinese Communist Party leader who was deputy director of the Central National Security Commission, chaired by President Xi Jinping.
Reading too much le Carré: Cash is also alleged to have told Berry in a message, “You’re in spy territory now.” Both men deny any wrongdoing — something Cash reiterated in a fresh statement last night. He said he had been put in an “impossible position” because this calamity also means they don’t get their day in court.
Without a doubt … the CPS needs to explain what exactly it was in these statements that led prosecutors to drop the case, because they didn’t believe the evidence from the government was that Beijing represented a “threat to the national security of the U.K.” Was it a distinction between talking about the threat China poses, and talking about China as “a threat” in entirety? Or was it something else? Expect various legal eagles to weigh in if clarification is not forthcoming.
The government’s not in the clear either: Collins’ second statement added language on how Britain benefits from trade and investment with China … while his third says the government is committed to pursuing a “positive relationship” with Beijing, and even borrows language word-for-word from the Labour manifesto. Collins said it was “important” for him to say this — why? Tory Leader Kemi Badenoch released a statement in the last hour pointing to this as the major hole in the PM’s case and claiming his story is “falling apart under scrutiny.”
Did it have any effect? It’s unclear whether those additions had any impact on the CPS’ thinking, but does raise questions as to why the PM has repeatedly insisted that it’s just the policy of the Tory government in charge at the time of the charges that matters. Remember, he told the Commons that there were no political orders whatsoever for prosecutors to drop the case. So did “doer not decider” Collins really insert these off his own back?
And then: Did the CPS tell the government what more it would need to say, and if so, why wasn’t it said? And if the PM knew for two days that the case was on the brink of collapsing, as Downing Street has admitted … why didn’t he step in to ensure the evidence was sufficient? “We leant into it as much as possible to help the prosecution characterize it as the threat,” one senior official told Playbook.
But but but: Critics will continue to suspect the government may have gone further if it wasn’t so worried about jeopardizing its economically beneficial relationship with Beijing, even if it may just have been a case of Starmer doing his lawyerly best to follow proper process. The Times’ Steven Swinford has a good explainer of the outstanding queries.
LET’S TAKE A STEP BACK: We now have a haul of evidence about alleged espionage in Britain … clear claims about the threat Beijing poses us … and yet all it’s amounted to is a collapsed court case, a major headache for the government and a big push to clear the whole thing up only prompting more concerns. Frankly, no one is any more satisfied by the state of play and MPs from across the spectrum will rightly be asking how the heck this all went so wrong.
Last night’s flurry: The late timing meant most of the front pages initially went on other extraordinary claims about Chinese espionage (we’ll get to them in a mo). But the Times got a swift rewrite out on how Collins did indeed call China a threat … the Guardian, too, gravitates to questions lying at the CPS’ door … while the FT dwells on the jarring “positive” relationship insertion. It all underlines how many different reads this can provoke.
The case for Starmer: Government figures Playbook spoke to seemed confident the statements only back up the case they’ve been making, while a former No. 10 official under Starmer messaged: “IMHO this looks really bad for CPS. Collins repeatedly refers to China as a ‘threat’ — and specifically as an ‘active espionage threat’ in that most recent statement.” Former Attorney General Dominic Grieve told the BBC’s The World Tonight that the saga was “utterly mystifying” because he couldn’t work out why prosecutors would drop the case in light of the three punchy witness statements.
In too DPP: There are senior MPs not taking too kindly to how Director of Public Prosecutions Stephen Parkinson has handled this. The DPP and his team met a bunch of select committee chairs on Wednesday as the parliamentarians prepare to launch some sort of inquiry into the saga. ITV’s Robert Peston hears Parkinson told them the government’s witness statements were “5 percent less than the evidence threshold that was needed.” But one MP told Peston: “He was just a bit wet about the whole thing. He should have taken the risk of prosecuting and have let a jury decide.”
The case for the critics: One former government adviser under the Conservatives asked why the PM didn’t step in to bolster the evidence, arguing “at best it’s complacent and at worst he made an active decision that led to the collapse of the trial.” Tory Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp is now calling for a fresh tranche of disclosures — while Lib Dem foreign affairs frontman Calum Miller wants a “statutory public inquiry.”
Will we hear Keir? It was unclear overnight whether we’ll be getting another explanation from the PM on all this today — or whether anyone will be dragged to the Commons to set it straight. Starmer appeared to have some kind of visit scheduled this morning, but No. 10 wasn’t confirming any details.
For now … it’s Care Minister Stephen Kinnock whose head will be spinning as he bats away the questions on the morning broadcast round. Expect a brutal Lobby briefing this morning too — because all the above is only part of it. If this row has served any purpose, it’s to drag out claims of just how vulnerable Britain is.
CHINA IN A BULLDOG SHOP: While Westminster waited for the witness statements to drop, the Lobby was busy delving into Dominic Cummings’ claims (first to the Times) that Beijing managed to obtain “vast amounts” of classified government information over many years. Those claims also splash the Mail and Telegraph.
But then … the government machine whirred into action to rubbish Boris Johnson’s ex-bezzy’s claims. The Cabinet Office issued a statement flatly denying the former chief of staff’s allegation that systems used to transfer the “most sensitive government information” had been compromised. And the head of the National Cyber Security Centre at the time Cummings says this occurred, Ciaran Martin, issued a rare statement describing his claims as “categorically untrue.”
It doesn’t stop there though: Government insiders weren’t batting all the allegations away by any means. Bloomberg’s Alex Wickham revealed that Chinese state actors have managed to wheedle their way into classified government computers for more than a decade, routinely accessing low- and medium-level classification information and also some marked “official-sensitive” and “secret.”
I spy with my little data hub: The Spectator’s Tim Shipman has now published his cracking piece packed with alarming details … like how far worse scandals involving China and Russia have been “swept under the carpet.” One of them centers on the “stratospheric f***-up” of how a Chinese firm was able to buy a data hub used by Whitehall departments to share info. Government insiders accepted that account, though one person briefed on the situation told Playbook they don’t believe the hub “held secret, or above, data.”
Raging spooks: Shipman also hears about anger from the chiefs of MI5, MI6 and CCHQ over how the spy case was dropped, and that parliament’s Intelligence and Security Committee is meeting this afternoon to discuss launching an inquiry that could demand testimony from national security adviser Jonathan Powell. A friend told Shipman of the whole furor: “Frankly, he doesn’t need this sh*t at his age.”
INCOMING: With rather delicious or awkward timing (depending on whether you’re in government or not) MI5 chief Ken McCallum is delivering his annual “state threats” speech — which all and sundry expect to feature plenty on China. Watch out for lines dropping on that this afternoon.
Every action, a reaction: The Tories are crowing about all this — but it’s a fair question as to why we’re only finding out about all this now. Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride is on the morning round trying to go big on the budget, but will likely face some awkward questions himself considering his time on the Tory government front benches. It’s gonna be another lively day in spy territory.
MEANWHILE, IN WASHINGTON
LOOKING DICEY IN D.C.: Rachel Reeves will spend a good chunk of her day in Washington taking on the economic editors in a round of interviews that’ll no doubt focus on her admission that taxes will be going up in next month’s budget and that there could be spending cuts too. The chancellor also has a new set of economic estimates to address.
Just in: The ONS moments ago published its figure for August’s GDP. Will it have trumped July’s whopping 0 percent growth? Click here to find out. U.K. export figures have also just been published. Expect Reeves to respond to these in her sit-down interviews with broadcasters and print hacks taking place around midday. But while we wait for those, there was a bit more from the chancellor last night.
Not quite a wealth tax: Reeves told the Guardian’s Heather Stewart that higher taxes on the wealthy “will be part of the story” as she insisted there “won’t be a return to austerity.”
Questions galore: Whether the hard-to-define “working people” will also be hit with tax hikes (stealth or not) remains an outstanding query — as does whether departmental budgets will also face a squeeze in real terms. Some were welcoming Reeves’ comments as a nod to some sort of wealth tax, though she wasn’t quite that explicit.
Go big or go home: The Institute for Fiscal Studies had a report out overnight telling Reeves she needs to be “bold” in plugging an estimated £22 billion shortfall at the Nov. 26 budget — or risk a “groundhog day” scenario in which she just has to come back to the despatch box for more. The BBC has a write-up.
The agenda: Reeves has bilats with Ukrainian counterpart Sergii Marchenko and IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, as well as a G20 ministerial meeting. But the biggest item on her schedule is a meeting with Donald Trump’s Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this afternoon. There’s plenty to discuss, but the British steel industry will hope she tries to get reducing tariffs on the agenda — not least considering the pain the EU is planning to inflict in that area too.
Bessie mates: Bessent may well have a big Ukraine plan to float with Reeves. The Telegraph’s Joe Barnes and Connor Stringer hear that the president has instructed his finance guy to talk to European allies about establishing a Ukraine victory fund to be bankrolled by fresh tariffs on China. That’s one to watch, what with Volodymyr Zelenskyy scheduled to be in town to meet the president on Friday.
BREGRETS, WE’VE HAD A FEW: As Playbook’s been noting, Reeves and the rest of the government’s been getting way more confident in blaming Brexit for the economic woes (even if it’s not going down swimmingly with all Labour MPs, as the i’s Kitty Donaldson notes). Now my EU-watching colleague Jon Stone has a new poll showing that voters — by a whopping two to one — actually favor the pre-Brexit immigration system to the one that’s taken shape since departure. Don’t expect the government to start resurrecting the ghost of free movement though … right? Check Jon’s story here.
MIGRATION NATION
LAND AHOY: The government’s chief small boats fighter Martin Hewitt is before the Home Affairs Committee this morning — with MPs keen to grill the border security commander on just how this “one in, one out deal” with France is shaping up. The numbers surrounding this and just whether it could be effective in reducing unauthorized Channel crossings are still key questions to scope out. Tune in from 9.30 a.m. — stream here.
Launching a thousand stories: The ex-copper put in a shift at Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood’s summit with counterparts from the Western Balkans on Wednesday. And stemming from that is a flurry of stories designed to show the government’s intent on tackling the issue that no doubt ranks higher in the public consciousness than the spy drama.
Brits abroad: The Times hears that U.K. border officers have been dispatched to the region — through which 25 percent of all small boat arrivals passed through last year, according to Home Office officials — to help clamp down on people smuggling.
No Balkan here: The plan is for them to train Balkan border guards to use drones and to help reduce passport fraud. Britain’s also hoping to team up with the EU’s Frontex border agency to take part in joint operations there. Though Playbook hears that so far only a “few” British officials have gone out there as part of a scoping exercise, in the hope of sending more in the future.
Just try carrots: Both the Telegraph and the Express also hear that Hewitt agreed with Balkans border police chiefs in a visit to Sarajevo to deploy surveillance tech such as night vision goggles and drones to limit clandestine movements in the dark.
Everything is migration: In another sign that Reform is leading the national conversation, Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper is retooling the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office to work more directly on tackling illegal migration, my colleague Esther Webber writes today. The FCDO announced it would increase the number of staff working on the issue, while officials say Cooper wants to break down silos in Britain’s embassies that currently lead to diplomatic and Home Office staff not speaking to one another.
Hostage to fortune: The move obviously fits with one of the government’s toughest missions — but at the same time, Cooper doesn’t have much room to maneuver in her new job. No. 10 keeps a close hold on Ukraine and Gaza negotiations — some civil servants now call Jonathan Powell “the real foreign secretary” — and asking to be judged on migration is a risky business. Read Esther’s piece here.
TODAY IN WESTMINSTER
BUILD, BABY, BUILD BLOODY EXPENSIVE HOMES: Labour will slash by more than half the requirement for developers to provide affordable housing in London — to save red-hatted Housing Secretary Steve Reed’s target of 1.5 million new homes, according to a Vicky Spratt scoop that splashes the i. A leaked memo suggested the 35 percent target could be cut to 20 percent, with only half of that needing to be paid for by developers. London Mayor Sadiq Khan and Reed were said to have had held talks over the “emergency reduction” that would frankly have outraged the same Labour bigwigs if the Tories had tried it.
READ MY LIPS: Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson will give a speech to the Confederation of Schools Trusts at 11 a.m. promoting plans revealed in September for all 13-year-olds to sit a mandatory reading test. Phillipson will tell the conference that reading is the “passport” to the rest of young people’s lives and plug a target of 90 percent of children passing a phonics screening check.
Also on her agenda: Phillipson, who is also responsible for the women and equalities brief, has been urged by EHRC boss Kishwer Falkner to speed up the approval of new guidance for the use of single-sex spaces by trans people. The BBC’s Brian Wheeler has more.
PERSISTENT KNOBHEADERY … may yet be a forgivable offence. One of the four remaining suspended Labour MPs, Brian Leishman, said he had a “good, open and positive” discussion with Chief Whip Jonathan Reynolds on Wednesday, the Scotsman’s Andrew Quinn reports. Playbook’s heard from another person linked to the outcasts who reckons the MPs came away with the feeling Reynolds wants them back in the fold.
CARROTS NOT STICKS: The government could save as much as £12.5 billion without cuts to out-of-work benefits by helping sick or disabled people into employment, according to a Work and Pensions Committee report that gets a write-up in the i Paper. That could at least help avert more headaches for the whips.
WHAT THE GOVERNMENT WANTS TO TALK ABOUT: £80 million in funding over three years for hospices for children and young people … and another £80 million for mental health support to help people back into the workforce.
STATS DROP: Quarterly figures on the use and delivery of electronic tagging devices in England and Wales drop here at 9.30 a.m.
BIG TECH WANTS TECH BIG: The government should reform planning rules, boost grid connections and attract more global investment to build more U.K. data centers and power an industrial revolution, according to Labour MP Chris Curtis in the foreword to a WPI Strategy report commissioned by those technophiles at Microsoft.
HOUSE OF COMMONS: Sits from 9.30 a.m. with Culture, Media and Sport questions … Church Commissioners and House of Commons Commission questions … Commons Leader Alan Campbell has a business statement … and the second reading of the Biodiversity beyond National Jurisdiction Bill. Liberal Democrat MP Alison Bennett has the adjournment debate on government support for children’s hospices in the southeast.
WESTMINSTER HALL: Debates from 1.50 p.m. on topics including world menopause day (Labour MP Carolyn Harris) … a Health and Social Care Committee statement concerning its report on black maternal health (Labour MP Paulette Hamilton) … and government support for women in STEM (Labour MP Lizzi Collinge).
On committee corridor: The Public Accounts Committee questions Treasury perm sec James Bowler on achieving value for money when providing public services (9.30 a.m.).
HOUSE OF LORDS: Sits from 11 a.m. with the introductions of new Investment Minister Jason Stockwood and Digital Economy Minister Liz Lloyd to the chamber … oral questions on topics including limiting stablecoin ownership, the Telegraph sale, steps to reduce youth unemployment and changing the law regarding police vetting, training and discipline … a statement from Lords Leader Angela Smith on the Middle East … and the second reading of the Crime and Policing Bill.
BEYOND THE M25
DRILLING INTO THE DETAILS: Norwegian oil giant Equinor revealed that the Rosebank oil field would produce the equivalent of 249 million metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions over its 25-year lifetime, an amount Greenpeace campaigners said was “greater than the annual emissions of Ireland, Belgium and Greece combined.” The energy company made the admission as it began a renewed attempt to drill in the U.K.’s biggest untapped oil field. The Times has more
ENJOY IT WHILE YOU CAN: EU countries have five years to prepare for war, according to a military plan obtained by my colleagues Jacopo Barigazzi and Laura Kayali to be presented by the European Commission today. The document states that by 2030, the continent needs a “sufficiently strong European defence posture to credibly deter its adversaries, as well as respond to any aggressions.”
STILL HOLDING: Aid trucks entered Gaza, Israel resumed preparations to open the main crossing into Rafah and Hamas handed over more bodies of dead hostages on Wednesday as the fragile ceasefire brokered by the White House remained in force. U.S. officials told my colleague Eli Stokols they were optimistic the peace deal would hold despite Israel complaining that the bodies of hostages were being returned too slowly and Hamas clashing with other Palestinians in Gaza.
LET’S BE PALS: Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa met Vladimir Putin for the first time in Moscow Wednesday and said he wants to “reset” his country’s relations with Russia. Putin also indicated he was keen for closer ties with the forces who toppled his former ally (and now Moscow resident) Bashar Assad. The FT has the rundown on the meeting.
**A message from Rolls-Royce: Rolls-Royce is an engine for growth in the UK economy, delivering critical defence capabilities across air, land and sea. We are the UK’s national champion for combat engine technologies and for 60 years have supplied the nuclear propulsion plants powering Royal Navy nuclear submarines, supporting national security and spreading economic growth across the UK. We are key to priority programmes including the UK Continuous At Sea Deterrent, AUKUS and GCAP. The Government’s Defence Industrial Strategy named nuclear and combat air as national security industrial priorities and committed to the development of a more resilient supply chain, driving export opportunities and creating high-skilled jobs – all contributing to UK economic growth. The UK is strategically advantaged with both commercial and defence aero-engine capabilities and we welcome the Government’s commitment to prioritising investment in dual-use technologies. Our collective ambitions are clear. We must now work at pace to deliver on this national endeavour.**
MEDIA ROUND
Care Minister Stephen Kinnock broadcast round: Times Radio (7 a.m.) … Sky (7.15 a.m.) … BBC Breakfast (7.30 a.m.) … LBC (7.50 a.m.) … 5Live (8.10 a.m.) … GMB (8.30 a.m.) … GB News (9.05 a.m.).
Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride broadcast round: LBC (7.05 a.m.) … Times Radio (7.45 a.m.) … GB News (8.05 a.m.) … Sky (8.15 a.m.) … Talk (9.15 a.m.).
Today program: Shadow Home Office Minister Alicia Kearns (7.50 a.m.).
Also on Times Radio Breakfast: IFS Director Helen Miller (7.30 a.m.) … former Defence Secretary Ben Wallace (8 a.m.) … Trump aide Sebastian Gorka (8.20 a.m.) … former Borders and Immigration Chief Inspector John Vine (8.35 a.m.) … the Times’ Cindy Yu and former Foreign Office Minister Hugo Swire (9 a.m.).
Also on Sky News Breakfast: Sutton Trust boss Nick Harrison (7.30 a.m.) … former MI6 boss Richard Dearlove (7.45 a.m.) … Pensana boss Paul Atherley (8.30 a.m.) … Action Against Hunger UK’s Jean-Michel Grand (8.45 a.m.).
Politics Live (BBC Two 12.15 p.m.): Labour MP Stella Creasy … Liberal Democrat MP James MacCleary … and the Telegraph’s Annabel Denham.
TODAY’S FRONT PAGES
POLITICO UK: Why migration is taking over the UK Foreign Office.
Daily Express: Kemi: It stinks of a China cover-up by PM.
Daily Mail: Chinese stole secrets from No.10 for years.
Daily Mirror: £145m owed … not a penny paid back.
Daily Star: Katie names TV star ‘rapist.’
Financial Times: Financiers sound alarm on standards after collapses expose riskier lending.
Metro: ‘Jailed 27 yrs…by her parents.’
The Daily Telegraph: Cummings: China stole secrets in major hack.
The Guardian: Budget will raise taxes on wealthy to fix public finances, says Reeves.
The Independent: Revealed: Terrible revenge of Taliban that shames Britain.
The i Paper: Leaked memo reveals Labour plan to slash affordable homes target.
The Sun: They could have saved Liam.
The Times: Whitehall data breach gave secrets to Chinese.
TODAY’S NEWS MAGS
The New Statesman: The emperor.
The Spectator: Here be dragons.
LONDON CALLING
WESTMINSTER WEATHER: Overcast all day. Low 11C, high 15C.
SPOTTED … at Onward’s President’s Dinner, hosted by the think tank’s boss Simon Clarke: Conservative Party Leader Kemi Badenoch … shadow Cabinet ministers Richard Holden, Alex Burghart, Andrew Bowie, Julia Lopez and Helen Whately … shadow ministers Nick Timothy, James Wild, Luke Evans, Mark Francois and Gareth Bacon … Conservative peers Danny Finkelstein, Stephen Gilbert, Natalie Evans and Rachel Maclean … Conservative MPs Damian Hinds, Alan Mak, Graham Stuart, Harriet Cross and David Reed … former Northern Ireland Minister John Penrose …
And breathe: Times leader writer Seb Payne and former Conservative SpAd Hannah Clarke … former No. 10 deputy chief of staff Will Tanner … former Chief Scientific Adviser for National Security Anthony Finkelstein … WPI Strategy’s Nick Faith … former SpAd Meg Powell-Chandler … Telegraph columnist Liam Halligan … Conservative Home’s Giles Dilnot … the Conservative Environment Network’s Sam Hall … M&S’ Adam Hawksbee … Onward’s own Gavin Rice, Ellie Craven, Caroline Elsom, Chris Worrall and James Yucel … hacks Jack Elsom, Jason Groves, Tom Harwood, Christian Calgie, Tali Fraser and William Atkinson.
Not safe as houses: Conservative Party Leader Kemi Badenoch said in a speech that she told former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner the government’s target to build 1.5 million homes by the end of the parliament would be an “albatross” around its neck. In the end, though, it wasn’t 1.5 million homes that brought Rayner down — it only took three.
Also spotted … Paymaster General Nick Thomas-Symonds pulling up on Whitehall in his ministerial car and walking into … the Clarence.
NOW READ: The Spectator’s James Heale has a fascinating profile of Sheridan Westlake, the Conservative operative of legend … who was responsible in no small part for the downfall of Angela Rayner last month.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO: Conservative MP John Whittingdale … Sky’s Sophy Ridge … Conservative peers Emma Nicholson, Michael Forsyth and Nicola Blackwood … Labour peers Kevin Brennan and Glenys Thornton … business and trade SpAd Nicola Bartlett … former Met Police Commissioner Cressida Dick … and former Green Co-Leader Jonathan Bartley.
PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT: My editors Zoya Sheftalovich, Alex Spence and Dan Bloom, researcher Martin Alfonsin Larsen and producer Dean Southwell.
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