5: Melton harness, Victoria Cup night, first race 8.28pm (NZ time)
Lance O’Sullivan doesn’t
have to worry about the same thing many of his key rivals do in today’s $550,000 Livamol Classic at Ellerslie: his horse.
O’Sullivan and training partner Andrew Scott have Waitak in the last leg of the spring Triple Crown, going into this Group 1 off the back of winning the second leg, the Howden Mile at Te Rapa, three weeks ago.
That would seem to confirm Waitak is in near-perfect form stepping up to 2040m today so the Matamata trainers can go into today more confident than most.
The Livamol divides pretty cleanly into two bunches, the proven Group 1 winners and those who aren’t quite at that level yet and maybe never will be.
The race was robbed of one of the Group 1 stars when Legarto was withdrawn on Friday with a minor hoof issue.
Waitak is part of that elite group alongside El Vencedor, Ladies Man, Sharp ‘N’ Smart and Quintessa.
Of that group, Waiktak has the fewest question marks hanging over his head.
Trainer Stephen Marsh has admitted this week his Ellerslie specialist and Horse of the Year El Vencedor still has improvement to come, and while he can win, those words must instill some doubt in punters’ minds, even if El Vencedor is able to dominate from the front.
He can win but probably doesn’t deserve to be as short as Waitak.
Quintessa won the Proisir Plate at Ellerslie on September 6 in stunning fashion, but her problem is she hasn’t raced since, with heavy tracks meaning she had to truck to Awapuni for a trial last week.
The list of horses who have won back-to-back Group 1 races stepping straight up from 1400m to 2040m in this part of the world would fit on a postage stamp, but Quintessa has class and Opie Bosson, so her task is not impossible.
While brings us to Sharp ‘N’ Smart, a former Horse of the Year who shows flashes of his old ambition but now hasn’t won a race for 959 days. This means you do not want to back him.
Ladies Man stands alongside Waitak as the member of the big six who has the least niggling worries heading into today’s feature, storming into third in the Howden Mile and likely to relish the step up to 2040m.
He is drawn slightly awkwardly and a lack of tempo could be an issue but this is his grand final, and as a winner over 1600m at Group 1 level last December, he may retain the speed to overpower them late.
But with those mini doubts and concerns over his rivals, Waitak is the horse to beat today.
After a roller-coaster 2024, he has looked a happier horse this year and has strung top-class wins together.
As a Railway winner, he has the speed to sprint hard enough to win off a moderate tempo, and O’Sullivan is adamant he has a sound and fit horse.
“He has just finally matured into the horse we hoped he would be,” says O’Sullivan.
“He won really well last start and his exhibition gallop on Sunday was perfect. He’s exactly where he needs to be.”
If you are looking for chinks in his armour, Waitak hasn’t won in five starts at Ellerslie, even dating back to its pre-StrathAyr track days, but has gone some boomers there, so deserves favouritism today.
The other highlight on what will be a wonderful betting programme stacked with big, even fields, is the $175,000 Windsor Park Soliloquy Stakes and clash of 1000 Guineas favourites Tajana and Lollapalooza, with Tajana slightly favoured after her last start victory.
Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s Racing Editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.