After April’s cost increases, and with Trump’s tariffs threatening, are we on the verge of a new round of high inflation? That’s a question making consumers’ confidence wobble. So it’s no surprise to see the GfK’s long-running Consumer Confidence Index down four points to -23 in April.

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To reflect the overall mood, all measures were down in comparison to last month’s announcement, led by two sharp drops in two economic measures with the future indicator on personal finances also slipping badly. 

So let’s start with the measure for the general economic situation of the country. Year on year it dipped five points to -47, six points worse than in April 2024, and expectations for the general economic situation over the next 12 months plummeted eight points to -37, 16 points worse than April 2024. 

The index measuring changes in personal finances during the last year fell one point to -10, albeit one point better than April 2024, and that forecast for personal finances over the next 12 months is down four points to -3, five points worse than this time last year.

As for the major purchase index, that fell two points this month to -19, but at least that’s still six points better than this month last year.

Finally, the savings index at least recovered five points to reach +30 in April and remains four points better than this time last year.

And there are good reasons not only for the overall downturn but a jittery outlook, according to Neil Bellamy, Consumer Insights director at GfK/NIQ Company. 

“Consumers have not only been grappling with multiple April cost increases in the form of utilities, council tax, stamp duty, and road tax, but they are also hearing dire warnings of renewed high inflation on the back of the Trump tariffs.

“The inflation rate eased in March, but are we now on the verge of another round of rapidly increasing prices? If so, consumer confidence is likely to collapse and the broad gains seen since the disastrous September 2022 mini budget, when confidence hit a record low of -49, could quickly be eroded.”

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