Leeds United going straight back down to the Championship looks inevitable due to three key factors as Sunderland exposes their fellow promoted side…
A major highlight of these early weeks of the 2025/26 Premier League campaign has been the performances of the three promoted sides.
After Southampton, Leicester City and Ipswich Town were relegated with a whimper last season, there looks to be a real battle to avoid the drop involving various teams this season, as Sunderland, Leeds United and Burnley have looked up for the fight.
Each side have been more pragmatic than the previous promoted teams and has made necessary changes to their approach to make themselves more competitive, though Sunderland have comfortably been the best.
At the weekend, the Black Cats overcame bottom-placed Wolves to move up to seventh in the Premier League table with four wins, two draws and two losses from their first eight matches.
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Unsurprisingly, Sunderland’s great start following promotion has been built on their form at the Stadium of Light, with Regis Le Bris’ side joint-top of the home Premier League table (alongside Arsenal and AFC Bournemouth) with ten points from four matches.
This contrasts with Leeds United, who have not been as dominant as they need to be at Elland Road if they are to have any hope of staying up.
There were pre-season concerns at Leeds due to their lack of transfer activity as they look very short of Premier League-level finishers at the top of the pitch.
Head coach Daniel Farke has attempted to remedy that by making his side tighter at the back, though they have still conceded the fifth-most goals in the Premier League this season.
And while Sunderland are flying high as one of the best Premier League home teams this term, Leeds United are in a lowly position of 16th in the home table as they have five fewer points from their four games than the Black Cats.
Leeds are actually slightly higher in the away Premier League table as they are 15th after four games, but they have three losses with nine goals conceded and only one defeat with three goals scored.
Therefore, it’s pretty clear that Leeds United’s home form must improve if they are to survive after leaving points on the table against Newcastle United, Bournemouth and Tottenham Hotspur.
As well as Leeds United’s home form, another worrying factor against them is their placement in the current Premier League xG table.
Leeds currently sit seventh in those standings, having massively underperformed on xG and xGA, with Farke’s side five points and eight places worse off than they should be based on this metric alone.
You could look at this positively in that it shows that there is an element of misfortune with Leeds United’s results, but it does prove the pre-season fears that they would lack ruthlessness in attack and also that they are needlessly throwing away goals.
This, plus their inability to rely on their home form, is a recipe for disaster in a relegation battle…
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