Reform UK has overtaken Labour and moved into second place in the race for Holyrood, with a poll predicting Nigel Farage’s party will win 22 MSPs.
Survation put Reform second on both the constituency and list votes for the first time, as the party gained in popularity last month while the SNP and others went backwards.
The survey of more than 2,000 Scots showed the SNP still likely to be the biggest party at next May’s election, but with fewer MSPs.
If correct, it would shatter John Swinney’s plan for a second independence vote, as the First Minister has insisted only another SNP majority can deliver a referendum.
Modelling by pollster Mark Diffley said the survey translated into 55 MSPs for the SNP, down nine on their 2021 result, and 10 short of an outright majority.
Challenging the SNP hard and tipped to become the offiical opposition at Holyrood, Reform would get 22 MSPs, up from zero at the last election, Labour 19 (down 3), the Tories 12 (down 19), the Liberal Democrats 11 (up 7), and Greens 10 (up 2).
The poll was first reported in the Herald on Sunday.
Mr Diffley told the paper: ‘This is the first poll in Scotland to show Reform UK in second place on both the constituency and regional list votes.
Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party has overtaken Labour in Scotland, according to the poll
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar
‘It consolidates the trend we have seen over the past year, with the party averaging around 20 per cent support and now edging ahead at 22 per cent.
‘They seem to be pushing Labour further back into third place, which is a clear problem for Labour.’
Reform came a close third in the Holyrood byelection in Hamilton June with 26.1 per cent of the vote, and second in last week’s Senedd byelection in Caerphilly with 36 per cent, ahead of Labour.
Reform only has one MSP at present – Tory defector Graham Simpson – but the proportional system used for Holyrood elections means it could pick up large numbers of list MSPs with even modest support.
Mr Farage told The Herald on Sunday: ‘We are pleased with our progress in Scotland as we plan for the election next May.’
Commissioned by the IPPR thinktank for its 10th anniversary conference this week, the poll showed the SNP leading the constituency vote on 34 per cent, followed by Reform on 22, Labour 18, the Tories 10, Liberal Democrats 8 and Greens 7.
On the regional list, the SNP had 29 per cent, Reform 20, Labour 17, the Tories 12 and the LibDems and Greens 10.
Compared to a Survation poll last month, the SNP were down two points on the list and three on the constituency vote, while Reform were up four on both.
Labour and the Tories each dipped slightly, while the Greens edge upwards.
The survey also found 80 per cent of Scots worried about the affordability and long-term future of public services
Just 41 per cent were optimistic about Scotland’s future, against 34 per cent pessimistic.
IPPR Scotland director Stephen Boyd said the results were ‘unsettling.’
He said: ‘The growth of anti-establishment politics has its roots in voters’ growing belief that government does not deliver. That feeling is fed by overambitious targets and promises on the one hand and a lack of realism about tax on the other.’
A Scottish Conservative spokesman said: ‘These figures are further evidence that voting Reform will only help John Swinney remain in power.
‘The public are scunnered with disconnected politicians. Under Russell Findlay’s common-sense leadership, we are focused on economic growth to generate more money for schools and hospitals and to cut household bills, not the fringe obsessions of the left-wing clique at Holyrood.’
Scottish Labour deputy leader Dame Jackie Baillie added: ‘Reform have no answers to the challenges Scotland faces.’
Scottish LibDem election campaign chair Wendy Chamberlain said: ‘It is clear the people of Scotland want change. That does not have to be bleak and nasty change with Reform.’
SNP depute leader Keith Brown said: ‘This is yet another poll showing the SNP well in the lead.
‘It is a disaster for Labour who have now fallen behind Nigel Farage into third place – Keir Starmer’s incompetent Labour government is becoming more unpopular by the day.’