Eight-time top 10k finisher Zophar hosts his weekly Q&A, giving his opinion on playing a 4-4-2, Crystal Palace, the Arsenal defence and selling Chelsea assets.
You can find his Gameweek 10 team reveal here.
Q: With defenders scoring better than midfielders and forwards so far, is going 4-4-2 or even 5-4-1 a better solution than 3-4-3 or 3-5-2?
(via Joeltouriste)
A: The rise of set pieces and direct football in the Premier League this season has been well documented. Naturally, defenders have been the biggest beneficiaries.
Amongst the 25 top-scoring FPL assets, just two – Erling Haaland (£14.8m) and Igor Thiago (£6.2m) – are forwards. What is even more surprising is that there are only seven midfielders in that list.
Of those midfielders, you could make a case that only Antoine Semenyo (£8.1m), Bryan Mbeumo (£8.2m) and Mohammed Kudus (£6.8m) are your ‘traditional’ FPL options. So there has been a dearth of points from players we consider good FPL picks in general this season, especially in attack.
Defensive contribution (DefCon) points are playing a part but that’s not the reason so many defenders make the top 25. The 12 top-scoring defenders have accumulated 14 goals and 15 assists between them; that’s a staggering number to supplement their combined 46 clean sheets. This does indicate that there are points at the back we are potentially ignoring when we are playing with the traditional 3-5-2 or 3-4-3 that FPL managers favour.
The big question: will this trend necessarily continue? We have enough of a sample to expect it to, but of course, there are no guarantees.
So, I think at least in the short/medium term, a 4-4-2 setup looks ideal. That’s what I have switched to on my Wildcard in Gameweek 9.
It’s a bit strange, though, because when you look at the underlying data, only three defenders – Riccardo Calafiori (£5.8m), Daniel Munoz (£5.7m) and Rodrigo Gomes (£4.5m) – have reached double digits for shots in the box. So you’re talking pretty much an average of one goal attempt a game for the other defenders. Is this sustainable? In fact, the five most creative defenders – Marc Cucurella (£6.1m), Kieran Trippier (£5.0m), Michael Kayode (£4.5m), Pedro Porro (£5.5m) and Hugo Bueno (£4.4m) – don’t make the 15 top-scoring defenders.
Are we reading too much into this? DefCon does look like the most repeatable, predictable action in FPL, so yes, going for heavier investment in defence does look like a good option. I do hope that the trend levels out over the remainder of the season, however.
Q: Is the Arsenal defensive triple-up still on the menu with the uncertainty over William Saliba?
(via FPL Virgin)
A: Very much so. Arsenal’s defensive numbers are the best we have seen in the modern age of data recording. I think you pick three of Gabriel Magalhaes (£6.5m), Jurrien Timber (£6.1m), Calafiori and David Raya (£5.8m), who I have listed in my order of preference.
This, of course, depends on whether you’re looking for captaincy alternatives to Haaland in Gameweeks 12 and 14 in particular, when he is away to Newcastle United and Fulham. Bukayo Saka (£10.0m) has good home fixtures in either week, but that could also be Mbeumo or Bruno Fernandes (£8.9m), who also have decent home matches.
Q: Was it an error to bring in Enzo Fernandez or is he a ‘hold’ for now?
(via Pompel)
A: Enzo Fernandez‘s (£6.7m) underlying numbers against Sunderland were decent but nothing to write home about. The only big chance he was involved in was a flick-on from a corner, which Alejandro Garnacho (£6.4m) failed to convert. He did land three attempts on target but if you watch back a highlights package, none of these efforts will likely feature, as they were tame efforts that never really looked like finding the back of the net.
He did, of course, play a more withdrawn role, with Joao Pedro (£7.4m) playing in the 10 and Marc Guiu (£4.2m) at 9. Against Spurs, I expect Enzo Maresca to revert to a similar setup that he used against PSG, with Reece James (£5.5m) in midfield and Malo Gusto (£4.9m) at right-back (the Frenchman was suspended against Sunderland), especially with Liam Delap’s (£6.2m) suspension. This would mean Enzo gets to play further up the pitch in a no. 10 role, with Pedro at 9.
It is worth mentioning that he barely took any set pieces against Sunderland; James was on most of them. I still think he’s a fine hold, but is Ismaila Sarr (£6.6m) a better option? I think yes. If buying today, I would probably opt for the Senegalese and avoid Chelsea’s misfiring attack altogether.
Q: I own Joao Pedro, Jarrod Bowen and Erling Haaland. Should I sell one of them for Jean-Philippe Mateta or roll the transfer with my Wildcard already played?Q. Who would you sell first out of Joao Pedro or Tijjani Reijnders?
(via (@FPLScottCFY and @Mohamed02916093)
A: Joao Pedro’s well-documented fitness issues, combined with poor underlying numbers and uncertain gametime, mean he is the priority sell for most FPL managers.
If you own a frontline of Viktor Gyokeres (£9.0m), Joao Pedro and Jarrod Bowen (£7.8m), I’d say the Brazilian has to be the makeweight for Jean-Philippe Mateta (£7.7m). Bowen still could get something over the next two games; he’s much more talismanic for the Hammers than Pedro is for Chelsea.
With Tijjani Reijnders (£5.6m), it’s a bit trickier as there is some minutes risk attached there too now, along with positional uncertainty. In this case, I would still prioritise selling Pedro as I’m not sure where you can go with Reijnders unless you have sizeable money in the bank. I also still think the Dutchman will start the next two for City.
Q: To what degree should we temper the Crystal Palace hype because of their thin squad + European involvement?
(via FPL_Marxist)
A: Oliver Glasner rotated his side a little bit for the trip to Anfield, and I think we might see that a bit more going forward, though the injury to Eddie Nketiah (£5.4m) certainly hasn’t helped matters.
The Eagles have the best attacking numbers in the league, and they have great fixtures. I think we might potentially be overthinking it when it comes to fixture congestion fatigue. I still think a double-up is almost essential, and while you could argue that a triple-up might be a bit too much, I am still in favour of it.
