Leeds and the struggle for away goals – how much of an issue is it?

Brighton & Hove Albion goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen was not tested until the 85th minute of Saturday’s clash with Leeds United.

Daniel Farke’s side generated 0.5 expected goals (xG) from their five shots in their least dangerous display on the road since visiting Molineux on September 20. The irony is Leeds scored three goals from 0.48 xG at Wolverhampton Wanderers in a 3-1 win.

At the other end of the spectrum, United generated 2.63 xG from 19 shots at Burnley last month and failed to score in a 2-0 loss. Make it make sense.

Leeds are hardly prolific on the road, but their three away goals do outrank Newcastle United, Nottingham Forest and Wolves. So they’re not an outlier at the foot of the table.

It’s not that Leeds are ahead of those teams on goals scored by mistake either. Newcastle, Forest, Wolves and Aston Villa have all generated less xG than Farke’s side away from home.

So, there are a handful of teams with fewer goals and fewer openings than Leeds, on their travels. How about the finishing of those chances that are being created? United are far from an outlier in that regard, either.

United have scored three goals from a collective xG of 4.3, which means an underperformance of 1.3. Crystal Palace (1.4), Liverpool (1.5), Manchester United (1.5), Sunderland (1.7), Arsenal (1.9), Newcastle (2) and Wolves (2.2) have all underperformed their away xG by a greater margin than Leeds.

The most concerning aspect for United is the fact they have blanked in four of their five games. Aside from the Wolves win, Leeds have failed to score at Arsenal, Fulham, Burnley or Brighton and there are concerns over the tactics and quality in the final third.

Is there cause for concern based on what else we have seen? It’s Forest at the City Ground next and United badly need to improve.

Leeds have produced 1.6 points per match at home versus 0.6 per match away, but there has strangely been marginally more possession for them on the road.

Turf Moor aside, they have not done much with the extra possession. The expected goals at each end diverge as you would expect between home and away games, while the difference in tactical setup is borne out in the numbers too.

United are more passive and press less on the road, predictably. At Elland Road, they allow the opponent 12.9 passes before looking to win the ball back, while this grows to 15.9 away. As a result, possession is won back in the final third four times per 90 minutes at home, but only 2.8 times per 90 minutes away.

The Molineux and Turf Moor trips are arguably worth a deeper look, given how much they stand out in the five away games. The two shot maps underline the chasm in quality and quantity of chances at each ground, but with such incongruous outcomes.

There were just six shots taken against Wolves, but everything seemed to fall for Leeds. Anton Stach’s driven free kick nearly took the net off, Noah Okafor benefited from Stach’s surprise turnover in the Wolves half before squeezing the ball home from a tight angle.

And it had all started with Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s towering header. How many times have we seen crosses go begging in the opposition box from Leeds this season? This was the time the No 9 got his head to it, between two defenders and goalkeeper Jose Sa failed to read it.

Contrast the scarcity of the above with this from Lancashire. More than three times as many shots, from an average distance of 10 yards closer to goal, and a five-times greater final xG tally.

Anyone who watched the full 90 minutes of the match with Burnley will tell you the statistics do not present an accurate reflection of the Leeds performance. It did feel like they could have played for another two hours and United would not have scored, but, objectively, the data suggests an away win in 80.5 per cent of cases if that game was replayed 10,000 times.

The context of United’s xG generation is important too. Once Burnley took the lead, their xG sat at around 0.45 and barely increased before full time. Loum Tchaouna’s long-range effort for the second goal did not, of course, do much to increase the team’s xG.

In United’s case, they were marginally ahead of Burnley on xG as the second goal went in, but it exploded as they chased the game and the hosts sat back, defending their own box. Virtually 2.0 of the 2.4 xG Leeds created came across the final half an hour of match with them 2-0 down.

There is a neat comparison between these two games around the aforementioned crosses into Calvert-Lewin. In both cases, you can see how a patient, slower build-up in their attack.

Leeds turn over a Wolves throw-in near the halfway line. Jayden Bogle wins the initial header, but his team then mops up the bouncing ball before giving it back to him. Above, you can see Ethan Ampadu and Brenden Aaronson each telling the right-back where to go with the ball.

Rather than rush the counter and look to catch the hosts out of shape, Leeds slow the ball and go through their phases. Bogle goes right to Joe Rodon, who then passes to Pascal Struijk. Ampadu can then collect from the base of midfield, with the entire team now further into the Wolves half.

Bogle has had time to advance and can now get the ball back, after those passes, in a more advanced position with plenty more space. He then delivers a peach of a cross between the penalty spot and the six-yard box for Calvert-Lewin to steer home.

In the Turf Moor example, Karl Darlow gathers a Burnley free kick and allows the team to set itself for an attack of its own. Crucially, the goalkeeper does not elect to launch the ball downfield for a rapid counter as Scott Parker’s side retreat.

Darlow goes left to Sean Longstaff. The midfielder has space to assess his options from the flank and comes back inside to the Rodon-Struijk-Ampadu axis which starts so many of United’s moves.

That trio retains the ball until Longstaff takes up his more routine central position. Again, in a fashion reminiscent of their 2023 to 2025 Championship dominance, Leeds pass through the thirds.

Bogle receives in an advanced position on the right, giving Longstaff space to drive forward into the channel. As Longstaff collects inside, it’s the trigger for Aaronson to attack the space in behind.

Longstaff instead uses Stach inside him. When you see the space the German has in front of him, on the edge of the box, you would understand his temptation to take another touch forward and shoot from 20 yards.

But he chooses the patient play and goes back to Longstaff, who then feeds Aaronson in that right channel for the eventual cross to Calvert-Lewin. Unlike in Wolverhampton, the United striker fails to get his head to the ball, but instead opts for a bicycle kick which flies well over.

The attack built into something useful, but the final effort let it down. Small margins or would a quicker counter have proven more effective in pulling Burnley apart?

More recently, at Brighton in a game where Leeds created so little, there were moments of cutting edge. Playing out from the back, methodically, was risky against a team with as aggressive a high press as Albion’s, but it did pay off in this passage.

Danny Welbeck allows a pass through his legs, but it’s intercepted by Rodon. Again, rather than look for Aaronson or Okafor in space down the channels, the defender calmly goes short to Longstaff, who goes short to Ampadu, who goes backwards to Jaka Bijol in space.

Welbeck, Carlos Baleba, Diego Gomez and Yankuba Minteh all play their part in pressing Leeds as fast as possible. All four Leeds defenders, plus Ampadu, are used as they go from centre to right, to centre and then left, harried as they go.

Once the initial burst of pressure eases, Ampadu finds himself with time to look up and build the controlled attack Leeds want. By the time they get beyond halfway, Aaronson drops into space, unfollowed, before popping the ball off to his captain again.

Ao Tanaka and then Longstaff provide the angles and runs which then break through the Brighton lines for a pass into space from the latter. Bogle gets onto it and delivers a superb low pass, but Calvert-Lewin can’t get there and Okafor chooses to come inside for a cut-back that never arrives.

Small margins at the end of one of United’s few potent moves in East Sussex.

There are crumbs of comfort for Leeds on the road. Four blanks from five is a damning concern, but the overall quantity and quality of chances being created do currently tally with a bottom-five club, which they are.

Does there need to be more variety in their attacks? Can they go from back to front more swiftly via Calvert-Lewin’s flicks and Okafor or James’s runs in behind? It’s all relative to their opponent.

The January transfer window may offer the injection of quality in the final third the club evidently wanted in August. Leeds cannot afford to wait until then for the goals and points to increase on the road.

Elland Road will be their crutch and may keep them up, but they can’t keep expecting their defence to bail them out away from LS11.