While Sweden remains the clear favourite to win Eurovision 2025, the Netherlands and Czechia have both made gains during the past week.

With less than three weeks to go until the Grand Final of the 69th edition of the Eurovision Song Contest, Sweden is nearing a 40% likelihood of winning Eurovision 2025 according to the betting markets. According to Eurovision World, Kaj and “Bara Bada Bastu” currently have a 39.4% chance of victory, gaining 5 percentage points in the past week.

Further down the top ten odds, the Netherlands has regained its position as fourth favourite to win, with Israel dropping a place and losing 1.1 percentage points. This percentage is the second highest of the past week, with Austria having lost 1.2 percentage points.

Czechia has also built momentum over the past week, with a 0.3 percentage point growth in its likelihood to win, pushing it now up to the seventh favourite to win. The odds currently point to Czechia having its best result in the Eurovision Song Contest since 2018.

Outside of the top ten, Cyprus has passed the United Kingdom to go twelfth favourite, while Spain is the biggest gainer by number of positions up three places to twenty-fourth favourite.

The percentage chance of victory according to Eurovision World as of 18:10 CET is (change since April 20):

  1. Sweden – Kaj – “Bara bada bastu” – 39.4% (+5.0%)
  2. Austria – JJ – “Wasted Love” – 15.1% (-1.2%)
  3. France – Louane – “Maman” – 8.4% (-0.3%)
  4. Netherlands – Claude – “C’est la vie” – 5.0% (+1 place, +0.1%)
  5. Israel – Yuval Raphael – “New Day Will Rise” – 4.6% (-1 place, -1.1%)
  6. Finland – Erika Vikman – “Ich komme” – 2.9% (-0.7%)
  7. Czechia – Adonxs – “Kiss Kiss Goodbye” – 2.8% (+2 places, +0.3%)
  8. Belgium – Red Sebastian – “Strobe Lights” – 2.7% (-1 place, -0.2%)
  9. Estonia – Tommy Cash – “Espresso macchiato” – 2.0% (-1 place, -0.5%)
  10. Albania – Shkodra Elektronika – “Zjerm” – 1.6% (-0.2%)
  11. Ukraine – Ziferblat – “Bird of Pray” – 1.2% (-0.2%)
  12. Malta – Miriana Conte – “Serving” – 1.2% (no change)
  13. Cyprus – Theo Evan – “Ssh” – 1.1% (+1 place, +0.1%)
  14. United Kingdom – Remember Monday – “What the Hell Just Happened?” – 1.0% (-1 place)
  15. Italy – Lucio Coris – “Volevo essero un duro” – 0.8% (-0.1%)
  16. Switzerland – Zoë Më – “Voyage” – 0.8% (+1 place)
  17. San Marino – Gabry Ponte – “Tutta l’Italia” – 0.7% (-1 place, -0.2%)
  18. Ireland – Emmy – “Laika Party” – 0.7% (+2 places)
  19. Greece – Klavdia – “Asteromata” – 0.8% (-1 place, -0.1%)
  20. Australia – Go-Jo – “Milkshake Man” – 0.7% (-1 place)
  21. Germany – Abor & Tynna – “Baller” – 0.6% (+1 place, -0.1%)
  22. Norway – Kyle Alessandro – “Lighter” – 0.6% (+1 place)
  23. Lithuania – Katarsis – “Tavo akys” – 0.5% (-2 places, -0.2%)
  24. Spain – Melody – “Esa diva” – 0.5% (+3 places)
  25. Poland – Justyna Steczkowska – “Gaja” – 0.5% (-1 place)
  26. Azerbaijan – Mamagama – “Run With U” – 0.4% (-0.1%)
  27. Slovenia – Klemen – “How Much Time Do We Have Left?” – 0.4% (-2 places, -0.1%)
  28. Denmark – Sissal – “Hallucination” – 0.4% (no change)
  29. Serbia – Princ – “Mila” – 0.3% (+1 place)
  30. Luxembourg – Laura Thorn – “La poupée monte le son” – 0.3% (+2 places)
  31. Armenia – Parg – “Survivor” – 0.3% (+2 places)
  32. Portugal – Napa – “Deslocado” – 0.3% (-1 place)
  33. Latvia – Tautumeitas – “Bur man laimi” – 0.3% (+1 place)
  34. Georgia – Mariam Shengelia – “Freedom” – 0.3% (-5 places)
  35. Iceland – VÆB – “Róa” – 0.3% (no change)
  36. Montenegro – Nina Žižić – “Dobrodošli” – 0.3% (+1 place)
  37. Croatia – Marko Bošnjak – “Poison Cake” – 0.3% (-1 place)

Image Source: ADONXS | Source: Eurovision World

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Posted by:Anthony Granger

Since launching Eurovoix in April 2011, it has been a pleasure to find out more about this amazing continent through the Eurovision Family of Events. From starting out as a small site, it’s been brilliant to see the site grow and flourish and continue to bring our readers everything from the world of Eurovision.