Leeds United’s results are not comfortable viewing for their supporters.
Three wins across 11 matches, before applying any wider context, is not a reassuring return. More recently, one win in six or four losses in five is an even more alarming trend.
It is possible to rationalise those losses. Leeds are back in the Premier League after two seasons away. Other teams have bigger budgets. And Daniel Farke is often keen to remind everyone of the positives of the return. They have 11 points from 11 games. This is an average of a point per game, the figure that tends to keep teams in the top flight.
In Sunday’s post-match press conference at Nottingham Forest, he said: “If I’m honest, I didn’t expect, before the season started and also how the transfer window turned out, it would be an easy, smooth ride through the whole season and we are never in danger.
“I judge our season so far: we have 11 games, we have 11 points, it’s a point average we need to stay in this league. We were not, on one game day, under the line, never in the relegation zone.
“This is also good. (It) could have been better, if you had won a few more points in the last two away games, yes.”
So, 16th-placed Leeds are on schedule, right?
If they sustain this points-per-game average, yes, as precarious as it might feel, that should ensure Leeds will be in the Premier League next season. That’s a big ‘if’ though. To defend the job he’s doing, Farke has to point out the points-per-game average. However flimsy it might feel, he’s factually correct.
It is also, unfortunately, factually correct to point out that the next 10 fixtures Leeds have will be far harder than the previous 10. In short, United, ideally, needed to be ahead of that one-point-per-game safety line in preparation for what’s likely to be a very stern examination of their top-flight credentials.
According to Opta’s Power Rankings metric, across the 10 matches since the campaign’s opening weekend, only Wolverhampton Wanderers and Chelsea have had easier fixtures than Leeds.
Opta says: “Our Power Rankings utilise a hierarchical Elo-based rating system to measure the strength of each team.” You can read more about it here, if you so wish.
Opta might dig out the data to back up your hunch, but you can look at the fixtures yourself and see it’s pretty clear what’s gone before and what’s to come for Farke’s side. They have only faced three teams in the current top 10 (Arsenal, Tottenham Hotspur and Bournemouth).
The other seven will all meet Leeds across the next nine games, with champions Liverpool to come twice in that period. It’s daunting, and that’s why it’s hard to mollify anyone with fears about the recent trajectory of the team.
This is where dropped points start to bite for Leeds. While the late own goal against Fulham and the late equaliser against Bournemouth, in isolation, can be seen as not too damaging, those three points would have provided some flexibility by that point-per-game metric over the tougher run.
The question now is whether Leeds can win some of their upcoming games as the underdogs. Farke was asked about the coming fixtures in his pre-Forest press conference last week.
“I know we face Man City, Chelsea, Liverpool within seven days, but I don’t judge,” he said. “Why shouldn’t we win some points there?
“(We had) more or less the same scenario, when we played Newcastle (United), Champions League side, new signings. They had just signed my German fella, Nick Woltemade, for I’m not sure how much money.
“Everyone said, ‘They will outclass you, (you have) no chance’. We won one point, and we were even closer to winning this game.
“I also got the feeling against Tottenham, home game, also normally in a good position, fighting for the Champions League. No one expected us, but we dominated many periods of this game and should have won some points.
“I don’t see why this should not happen against Liverpool, or against Man City, or against Chelsea or teams of this calibre.”
The subsequent performance at the City Ground, of course, did little to inspire fans that Leeds can overcome the odds like this. The Aston Villa match on the other side of the international break, within the comforting confines of Elland Road, seems pivotal.
Unai Emery’s team started the season poorly with no wins and only one goal in five matches. However, their tails are up again. They have risen to sixth with five wins from six, including outstanding home wins over Manchester City and Bournemouth.
As challenging as that game is going to be, even at home, for Farke’s side, you sense they need to win it. Farke says that, inside the dressing room, they are not panicking, but outside the club is where the win is really needed.
Confidence and belief are hanging by a few threads in some corners of the ground, and they need reasons to believe that triple-header at the end of the month will not result in three pummelings. And if they cannot achieve that, then at least a mathematical buffer for the limited points which may come would be valuable.
Yes, United’s points average is where it needs to be right now, but if the club is at par for the more appealing holes they’ve already completed, they need to up their game significantly to avoid the bunkers and bogeys ahead.