Les Bleus are unbeaten in their last five meetings with Ukraine. With Kante back, the visitors will struggle to pierce the French backline.
France vs Ukraine Betting Predictions
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
France to wear down the Ukrainians in the second half
Based on the Ukrainians’ last World Cup qualifying win over Azerbaijan, they are expected to line up in a 4-5-1 system in Paris. Serhiy Rebrov’s side will do their level best to contain France for as long as possible by crowding the midfield players.
They will aim to keep the ball away from the likes of Bradley Barcola, Hugo Ekitike, and Kylian Mbappe. Since a draw would leave Ukraine in control of their qualifying playoff situation, they will do all they can to keep the French at bay.
Given the firepower at Deschamps’ disposal, the home side may break the Ukrainians’ resolve in the end. Backing a home win after a draw at halftime seems like a reasonable play at a modest 23.81% probability.
Caution expected from both sides
France have scored nine goals in four 2026 World Cup qualifying games. Ukraine have only conceded seven goals in four games, so the data suggests France will score no more than two goals in Paris.
With the likes of Doue and Dembele still sidelined, the French side will depend on Mbappe and Ekitike. However, this duo has had a busy period playing for their respective clubs, so the November international fortnight doesn’t come at an ideal time.
Since Ukraine will surely keep a tight defence at the Parc Des Princes, they are likely to make it even harder for France to score regularly. That’s why there is value in backing France to score two goals or fewer on Thursday at a probability of 57.14%.
Backing more goals in the second period than in the first
Since the Ukrainians are likely to frustrate France early, backing the second half to feature more goals than the first may offer good value as well. Currently, the odds-against probability for this bet is 48.78%.
Although Didier Deschamps will have a few days to work with his players, most of them had very busy schedules during October. With World Cup qualification all but secured, the French may be content with starting the match slowly.
The lack of Desire Doue and Ousmane Dembele may have a huge impact. More than two-thirds (67%) of France’s goals have arrived in the second half of qualifying games this campaign. More than half (57%) of Ukraine’s goals conceded occurred after halftime.
Our analysis: Form of both teams
France and Ukraine face off on Thursday night at the Parc des Princes. If the Ukrainians avoid defeat, they put themselves in the best position to secure second place in Group D of 2026 World Cup qualifying.
Deschamps has made some notable changes to his squad for the November international fortnight. N’Golo Kante is back in the squad after being sidelined for almost a year. Kante is in excellent form for Saudi Pro League defending champions Al Ittihad and will help to protect the French defence.
Rayan Cherki and Randal Kolo Muani are back in the squad, while Crystal Palace talisman Jean-Philippe Mateta keeps his place. Les Bleus are still missing the likes of Ousmane Dembele, Desire Doue, Adrien Rabiot, and Aurelien Tchouameni due to injury.
The Ukrainians were forced to make changes to their national squad for the coming World Cup qualifiers. Injuries to Volodymyr Brazhko and Arseniy Batagov created opportunities for Yegor Nazaryna and Taras Mykhavko.
Ukraine are currently three points ahead of third-placed Iceland, with only two qualifiers to play. Their final qualifier is against Iceland at home on Sunday. Securing at least a point against the French would mean their qualification fate remains entirely in their own control.
Predicted lineups for France vs Ukraine
France expected lineup: Maignan, Gusto, Saliba, Upamecano, Hernandez, Kante, Camavinga, Barcola, Olise, Ekitike, Mbappe
Ukraine expected lineup: Trubin, Konoplya, Mykolenko, Zabarnyi, Matviyenko, Hutsulyak, Sudakov, Malinovskyi, Ocheretko, Yarmolyuk, Dovbyk
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