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It’s not just Keir Starmer who is staring down the barrel of a sudden and undignified end to his leadership. Anas Sarwar, his close ally and leader of Scottish Labour, also faces questions about his future.

North of the border, Labour has sunk to third place in the polls, behind the SNP and Reform. With six months to go until the Holyrood election, the party is nowhere near where it needs to be if it is to oust the Nats from Bute House. Concerns are growing among senior figures that Labour’s ambitions might be done for, even before the campaign has a chance to get properly underway.

It’s impossible not to feel for Sarwar. Most of his problems are not of his own making. Labour sources say that on the doorsteps in recent Scottish by-elections, the biggest obstacle they faced was the chronic unpopularity of the Prime Minister. He is a major drag factor on Labour’s vote, as is the perception that his government has so far been a failure. With a brutal Budget on the way, no one is expecting this to change any time soon.

Scottish MPs have been involved in the conversations about replacing Starmer before the May electoral test in Scotland, Wales and in English local government. “The timetable has changed. They’ve started asking why Scotland, Wales and England should be sacrificed before making the change that people can see is needed,” said one source.

So Sarwar is arguably going into the election campaign with one hand tied behind his back. Eighteen months ago, the belief was that a new Labour government at Westminster would help him over the line in Scotland. That mood has long since evaporated. “It’s a shitshow and a problem for us,” said one party insider. Sources in Labour warn that the Scottish leadership is responsible for at least some of its own troubles, though. They argue that the party appears “policy-light” and could be leaving it too late to define its offer and its message to voters.

Sarwar is liked and respected by his colleagues. He has brought Scottish Labour back from the doldrums and is a dervish of energy and confidence. His social media videos have been excellent – professional, smart and funny – in the past few months, as his team have learned from the online tactics of Zohran Mamdani, the innovative New York mayor.

It’s not that Labour lacks funding or expertise, either. With Douglas Alexander back in the Scotland Office, they have a seasoned election-winning veteran at the helm of their campaign. The team around Sarwar has experience of the successful 2024 general election and has pulled off some excellent by-election results since then. The donors who have supported the party in recent years are still around.

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And yet, despite these advantages, they are battling with Reform for a claim on second place, rather than scrapping with the SNP for outright victory. I’m told that there are plans for a significant January launch of policy, but, says one source, more needs to be done before then. “By the end of this year we need to be clearly in second place. Many voters are fed up of the SNP but they need to look at Labour and see us as the obvious alternative, and they need to start doing that soon. We’re leaving it all a bit late to set out that we are offering change and difference.”

Easier said than done, of course, but that’s the challenge. Sarwar would defend himself against criticism that he is policy-light, and could point to a thoughtful and detailed report on economic growth published this week by Anton Muscatelli, the economist and former principal of the University of Glasgow, which the Labour leader commissioned. He has also taken a deliberate decision to hold back on announcing some of his key policy ideas until the Holyrood campaign is fully underway, to ensure they are fresh and that the SNP doesn’t steal them. He believes that voters haven’t yet begun focusing on the Holyrood election, and are still viewing politics through a Westminster prism. When that changes in the new year, he expects Labour’s data to improve.

But still, the polls show the fight is currently with Reform for second place, rather than with the SNP for first. A third-place finish would be a humiliation – as it was in 2016 when Ruth Davidson achieved the unthinkable by bringing her Tories home in second, ahead of Labour. Sarwar had seemed to have put those dark days behind his party. And yet…

It seems extremely unlikely that he will stay on as Labour leader if he fails to become first minister in May. Sarwar’s whole game since taking the job in 2021 has been targeted at winning Bute House in 2026. That was the goal het set himself, and he did so in public. Even a second-place finish for Labour would hand the Nats a third consecutive decade in government. That could only be judged a catastrophic failure, whatever the reasons for it and whoever is most to blame. The only question then is likely to be whether Keir Starmer or his pal Anas Sarwar is first out the door.

[Further reading: Keir Starmer has entered the danger zone]

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