But everything changes when the Tour de France enters the equation.
One day between Paris and Los Angeles
To avoid clashing with the Olympics, the Tour is expected to run 23 June to 16 July — the earliest edition in decades. While this technically clears space for the Games, it creates an unprecedented squeeze: the Tour finishes on 16 July, and the Olympic MTB race begins on 17 July.
That leaves Van der Poel roughly 24 hours to end a three-week Grand Tour, travel across nine time zones, switch from endurance to explosive cross-country racing and line up for one of the most technical events on the Olympic programme. Then, assuming he survives that chaos, he would have five days to reset for the Olympic road race — a major goal in its own right.
No rider has ever attempted such a sequence. For most, the idea wouldn’t even reach the planning stage.
A decision that could define his Olympic campaign
Van der Poel will be 33 at the Games — still world-class, but at the point where Olympic cycles become limited. If LA28 is his best remaining shot at XCO gold, he may feel compelled to build the entire summer around it.
That leaves him three realistic options:
- Skip the Tour and target the MTB–road double — the most achievable and legacy-shaping path.
- Ride the Tour and focus solely on the Olympic road race, shelving his mountain bike ambitions once again.
- Attempt the full triple — Tour, MTB and road — a scenario so demanding it would require near-perfect logistics and superhuman recovery.
Each choice carries consequences for his preparation, his team and the narrative of his final peak years at the top level.
A slim chance — but still a real one
Most riders would dismiss the triple outright. Van der Poel won’t. As long as the dates overlap by hours rather than weeks, the possibility remains alive — however faint.
The truth is simple: the Tour–MTB–road triple borders on impossible, the MTB–road Olympic double is genuinely realistic, and Mathieu van der Poel’s pursuit of Olympic glory remains very much intact.