What would the world of gravel look like in 2026 with a Specialized super team? A little thought exercise.
Taylor Chase Life Time Events
Thomas Euler is a gravel fanatic. Besides writing about gravel on Escape Collective, he has his own “gravel-coded” The Gravel Stack Substack. He also hosts the Gracing podcast, where he (p)reviews gravel races, often with the top pros who competed.
The first time I heard the rumors about an alleged Keegan-Swenson-to-Specialized move was in late September. In a German episode of the Autsaid podcast that I recorded with Paul Voss, the German gravel champion and a plugged-in cycling creator, Paul talked about various rumblings he had heard from cycling insiders he considers credible sources. The most noteworthy of those rumors? Keegan Swenson would leave Santa Cruz and move to Specialized, where he’d join his buddy Matt Beers. Moreover, Paul mentioned that Mads Würtz Schmidt would also join Swenson there to form a proper superteam.
These sorts of high-profile team or sponsor transfer stories are relatively new to gravel and an indication of its increasing professionalization. What used to be a loose collection of privateers and boutique partnerships is now edging closer to a proper ecosystem with agents, bidding wars, and strategic roster moves. Such a move from Swenson, then, could be a big deal.
After recording the episode, naturally, the digging began. I talked to a few people who are better connected than I am. Some of them had heard the same rumors. But I got nothing that comes even remotely close to an official confirmation.
News comes, news goes. I don’t aspire to be the Woj (or Dan Benson) of gravel. Personally, I’m much more interested in what happens after the news-breaking is done. How does the story play out? What does it mean? Where does it lead?
In the weeks since recording the podcast, I’ve seen a few cryptic public comments by folks that implied they had heard the same rumors. And then, I came across a post by Chris Mehlman on his Bluesky the other day:
Insider scoop: Keegan Swenson to leave Santa Cruz (and maybe a couple of other sponsors). Where is he going to go? Only a few companies can afford him, he shares an agent with Sofia Gomez-Villafane (also his wife), so maybe Spec?
— Chris Mehlman (@cmehlman34.bsky.social) November 16, 2025 at 8:05 PM
I subsequently chimed in and told Chris what I had heard before:
Several weeks ago Paul Voss and I, on a German episode of our podcast, discussed the rumors he had heard from credible sources that said Keegan wd be going to Specialized. He is allegedly also accompanied by Mads Würtz Schmidt to form a proper super team.
— The Gravel Stack (@thegravelstack.substack.com) November 17, 2025 at 5:43 AM
Escape Collective can now confirm that it appears those rumors are true. Multiple sources close to Swenson and to Specialized have since indicated to us that the move is on.
I don’t assume we will get official confirmation of the move before the end of this contract year/the start of the new one, which in the world of gravel privateers usually is December 31st/January 1st. We reached out to Specialized but didn’t receive a response prior to publishing.
But that does not have to stop us from thinking about the matter. What would it mean for the parties involved? How would it affect the 2026 gravel season? With those questions in mind, let’s take a moment to imagine a world in which Keegan Swenson indeed moves to Specialized.
The hypothetical Swenson-at-Specialized world
Let’s use a tool from the futures studies toolbox and do a little scenario planning. After all, for a gravel writer, it’s a good idea to come prepared in case a seismic shift happens in the sport, isn’t it?
We’ll start by fleshing out a hypothetical world after the alleged Swenson-to-Specialized move. And since a bit of structure never hurts, let’s look at a few relevant dimensions of our neat little world: the racing, the teams, and the brands.
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