Oil prices tumbled on Friday as renewed hopes of a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine raised expectations that this could lead to increased supply on the market.
Brent crude (BZ=F) futures fell 1.5% to $62.45 per barrel at the time of writing, while West Texas Intermediate futures (CL=F) rose 1.7% to $58.01 a barrel.
Oil prices extended falls from the previous session, following reports that the US and Russia had drafted a plan to end the war in Ukraine.
According to multiple reports, proposals in the plan include Ukraine making major territorial and military concessions.
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In an address on Thursday evening, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky reportedly said US military officials in Kyiv had “presented its proposals, the points of a plan to end the war – their vision”.
“From the first days of the war, we have upheld one very simple position: Ukraine needs peace,” he said, according to a BBC report. “A real peace – one that will not be broken by a third invasion.”
These latest developments come as US sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, are due to come into effect on Friday.
In a note on Thursday, ING head of commodities strategy Warren Patterson and commodities strategist Ewa Manthey said: “Signs that the US is still trying to work on a deal eases some concerns over further sanctions against Russia and also how strongly current curbs will be enforced.”
Gold prices also ebbed lower on Friday morning, as a mixed US jobs report further clouded expectations as to whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December.
The US economy added 119,000 positions in September, data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Thursday showed, which was delayed due to the government shutdown. This was higher than the expected a gain of around 50,000 positions, according to data from Bloomberg.
At the same time, the US rate of unemployment crept up to 4.4% in September from 4.3% in the previous month and was the highest level since October 2021.
Jobs data is closely watched by the Fed, as it tries to balance using higher interest rates to get inflation under control while also avoiding too much of a slowdown in the economy.
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Neil Wilson, UK investor strategist at Saxo Markets, said that the strong job growth in September “reinforced expectations of unchanged Fed rates in December”.
He said that “with the October data pulled and the November report now set to be released after the Fed’s meeting in December, it seems unlikely there will be enough data to warrant a cut. Minutes from the last meeting also reveal a pretty divided committee.”
Higher interest rates tend to weigh on gold prices, as this reduces the appeal of holding the precious metal, as a non-yielding asset.
Gold futures (GC=F) dipped 0.2% to $4,052.40 per ounce at the time of writing on Friday morning, while spot gold were down 0.5% at $4,057.70 an ounce.
The pound was flat against the dollar (GBPUSD=X) on Friday morning, trading at $1.3082 at the time of writing, as investors digested the latest UK government borrowing data.
UK government borrowing came in at £17.4bn for October, which £1.8bn less than in October 2024, according to data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Friday.
However, this was higher than consensus expectations of £15.1bn and the Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecast of £14.4bn.
These latest figures come less than a week before Rachel Reeves is due to deliver the autumn budget on 26 November, with the chancellor expected to announce tax increases to help repair the UK’s public finances.
Professor Joe Nellis, economic adviser at accountancy and advisory firm MHA, said that October’s borrowing figure paints a “challenging picture for the public finances … reinforcing the fiscal squeeze facing the chancellor ahead of the budget”.
Read more: UK government borrows more than expected in pre-budget blow for Reeves
“Despite signs of improving economic momentum in some sectors and a fall in inflation, the UK’s fiscal position remains fragile, shaped by subdued growth, rising welfare pressures, and the ongoing impact of higher interest rates on government debt servicing,” he said.
The pound was also little changed against the euro (GBPEUR=X) on Friday morning, trading at €1.1330 at the time of writing.
More broadly, the FTSE 100 (^FTSE) declined 0.4% in early European trading to 9,485 points. For more details on market movements check our live coverage here.
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