World Rugby’s four pool-stage seeding bands for Rugby World Cup 2027 are very nearly confirmed, with only one late plot twist still on the table.

Tonga can crash into Band 3 if they beat or draw with Scotland at Murrayfield this afternoon. If they manage it, Samoa would be bumped down into Band 4.

Samoa’s drop stems from their draw with Belgium in Dubai last week, which cost them ground. Tonga, currently sitting just behind Chile in 19th, now have a narrow window to break into the third band.

Chile came within 15 points of Italy in Genoa last night and are safe in Band 3 as a result.

That is the only jeopardy left.

Excluding an unlikely but not impossible Tonga band jump, when the rankings update on Monday at noon the order within the bands may shift slightly but the bands themselves won’t change.

Twenty-four teams will compete at Rugby World Cup 2027.

Tournament hosts Australia will be assigned automatically to Pool A. The Wallabies will be drawn from Band 2 based on their year-end standing, but their route into the tournament is locked regardless.

Leaving Australia side, eleven other teams booked automatic places by finishing in the top three of their pools at Rugby World Cup 2023: Argentina, New Zealand, Fiji, Japan, England, France, Ireland, Italy, Scotland, Wales and South Africa.

The remaining twelve qualified through the global pathway.

Georgia, Portugal, Romania and Spain advanced from Europe, Zimbabwe came through Africa, Hong Kong China qualified from Asia, while Canada, Tonga and USA emerged from the Pacific route and Uruguay qualified from South America.

Chile won a regional playoff and Samoa secured the final berth via their repechage success in Dubai last Tuesday, clinging on to a vital draw against Belgium.

Zimbabwe’s presence in Band 4 stands out: they sit outside the top 24 in the rankings but qualified as Africa’s representative. Belgium, despite being ranked higher, miss out entirely.

The bands as they stand

Band 1
South Africa
New Zealand
England
Ireland
France
Argentina

Band 2
Australia
Fiji
Scotland
Italy
Georgia
Wales

Band 3
Japan
Spain
Uruguay
USA
Samoa
Chile

Band 4
Tonga
Portugal
Romania
Hong Kong China
Canada
Zimbabwe