With sluggish growth and strained public finances, the U.K.’s Labour government no longer shies away from blaming Brexit for the prolonged economic woes as it prepares for a difficult budget likely to include unpopular tax rises.

How has the rhetoric changed?

Labour politicians tried not to mention Brexit as their party swept to power in last year’s election in a careful attempt to avoid alienating voters who had backed leaving the EU at the 2016 referendum.

But in recent weeks, Prime Minister Keir Starmer has accused the previous Conservative government of having negotiated a “botched Brexit deal,” while Health Secretary Wes Streeting said he was “glad that Brexit is a problem whose name we now dare speak.”

Treasury chief Rachel Reeves, who will present her budget on Wednesday, has called the impact of Britain’s departure from the bloc “severe and long-lasting.”

She believes it has contributed to weak growth, which slowed to 0.1% in the three months to September, to high inflation of 3.6% in October, and to a public deficit of about 5% of gross domestic product (GDP).

The change in rhetoric is part of the groundwork for justifying the expected tax increases, which will follow last year’s rises that the Labour government attributed to a multibillion-pound “black hole” left to them by the Conservatives.

Estimated economic impact of Brexit

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), Britain’s spending watchdog, estimates that Brexit will ultimately reduce the size of the U.K.’s economy by about 4% and reduce trade by 15%.

It said that new trade deals signed with countries since Brexit “will not have a material impact.”

“Insofar as Brexit has made the economy less open to trade, that will have a negative effect for a period,” Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey said last month.

Jonathan Portes, professor of economics and public policy at King’s College London, told Agence France-Presse (AFP) that “Brexit has clearly damaged the U.K. economy,” emphasizing that it had worsened confidence and investment, and contributed towards “persistently weak” exports.

He added, however, that years of austerity, convoluted planning systems and regional disparities have also contributed to slow growth.

He also noted that France, Germany and Italy have similar growth trajectories, so “Brexit alone cannot be the main explanation.”

Starmer wants deeper relations with the bloc but has pledged not to return to the single market, customs union or free movement.

London and Brussels said earlier this month they were set to begin formal negotiations on an agreement to ease the trade of food and agricultural products, which could ultimately strengthen the British economy.

Is Brexit a political risk?

The recent shift in tone by senior government figures likely “reflects confidence among ministers that a clear majority of voters believe Brexit was an error,” former prime-ministerial adviser Patrick Diamond told AFP.

An Ipsos survey published in June found that 54% thought Brexit was the wrong decision for the U.K., compared with just 32% who thought it was the right decision.

A YouGov poll released the same month found that 61% of Britons now consider Brexit a failure and that 56% want to rejoin the EU.

‘Bregret’

The surveys have led commentators to talk about “Bregret.”

For Chris Hopkins, director of polling firm Savanta, the anti-Brexit noise is also “a direct response” to Nigel Farage, one of the leaders of the leave movement, whose anti-immigrant Reform U.K. party is leading Labour by double-digit margins in opinion polls.

“It might not win Labour-to-Reform switchers back, but it does create clear space between the parties and the leaders,” Hopkins told AFP.

“And Labour knows that in many cases it may need to rely on voters from other parties to help it stop the prospect of a Reform-led government.”


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