It’s day 1,377 of the war in Ukraine.
With fighting continuing to drag into another winter, Ukraine is currently facing a $100m (£75m) corruption scandal related to alleged kickbacks and bribes around a state energy company.
Running parallel to that, in recent weeks, a US-Russia draft peace plan has emerged, causing alarm in Kyiv and its European allies and kicking off the latest round of diplomatic efforts.
On the back of all this, Michael Clarke says the pendulum hasn’t swung decisively in Russia’s favour.
Quoting another analyst named Fiona Hill, he says Russia is “winning the battle of the narrative” but it will struggle to grind forward on the battlefield.
“There is this sense that the pendulum is always swinging towards Russia but I don’t think that’s entirely true,” he adds.
“The Ukrainians are still fighting in the north… The fact is, the Russians haven’t secured that area, which is what they want,” he says, referring to the key city of Pokrovsk.
He explains that Russians are not able to keep the momentum going when they do claim a victory because of the way they fight and the way they organise themselves.
“They are making some gains, but if you look at it from a strategic point of view, they still haven’t taken a major city,” he says.
“They are nowhere near achieving that at the moment. The Russians are winning slowly on the ground, but not in a way that takes them forward politically.”
However, he noted that Ukrainians “really need a ceasefire” because they need to take a break.
“With a ceasefire, they could take a breath. The Russians need a ceasefire for the same reasons, but they’ve got this grinding machine behind them, which keeps on going,” Clarke adds.
“The Ukrainians are not prepared to do that… They’re weary, they’re cynical, they’ve lost faith… but they’re prepared to say that we’ve got no choice.”