Just over 16 years ago Network Rail was talking up the prospect of trains so fast they could travel from Edinburgh to London in little more than two hours.
Now industry leaders are warning Scottish travellers they may have to kiss goodbye to even the dream of journey times of less than four hours.
Rail and business leaders are concerned after a newspaper report at the weekend suggested that the British government would not safeguard the proposed route of a high-speed track, HS2, across the Midlands.
In 2023 Rishi Sunak’s Conservative government called off plans to push modern European-standard trains from Birmingham to the strategically important Crewe, south of Manchester.
But the law — the consents for the route — officially remains in place until early next year. The i paper, however, has reported that the Labour government, with no money to lay the actual track, will allow the consents to expire. Insiders fear it means the high-speed line could be blocked for ever.
The High-Speed Rail Group, which represents the sector, issued a stern warning on Tuesday.
“Unless HS2 is completed at a minimum from Euston to Crewe, it will be a serious blow to Scotland, as the bottleneck on the west coast main line north of Birmingham will continue to constrain the UK’s busiest rail corridor,” it said. “Ministers must act now to protect land on this route and ensure a future rail network that delivers capacity, connectivity and growth across the whole nation.”
The Greatworth Green Tunnel, part of the first phase of the HS2 high-speed rail between London and the West Midlands
RYAN JENKINSON/GETTY IMAGES
Sunak ditched the fast track from Birmingham to Crew — sometimes called the 2a part of HS2 — at his party’s annual conference in Manchester, despite having already spent £900 million on the project. He decided to continue with plans to provide high-speed rail to Birmingham. Critics suggested this was pointless and that the real benefits of HS2 were only realised when trains were able to compete with flights on journeys from the north of England and Scotland.
Flights make up three quarters of the market share on travel between the Scottish central belt and London. This leaves Scottish travellers vulnerable to long-term demands on English airspace and slots at airports such as Heathrow.
An industry source said: “Taking HS2 to Crewe is critical for Scotland to achieve meaningful benefit from this investment.
“Without this, it won’t be possible to bring Glasgow-London journey times below four hours and shift a significant shift of passengers from plane to train.”
Network Rail, which owns and runs track infrastructure, had been upbeat about cutting times between London and the two big Scottish cities. In 2009 Iain Coucher, then chief executive of Network Rail, issued a press release mooting journey times from the UK capital as low as two hours and nine minutes to Edinburgh and two hours and 16 minutes to Glasgow. This was three years before the British authorities announced that HS2 would be built in two stages, first to Birmingham and then to Crewe. HS2 would not only have enabled faster passenger journey times, but freed up existing track to ensure freight services were more reliable, taking lorries off roads.
Coucher, crucially, had suggested that a faster service across the border would be commercially viable.
“Demand for rail travel is growing and our main lines from the north to London are nearly full,” he said. “By 2020 we will be turning away passengers — that’s not what we want. We need to start the planning now to meet future demand, and the solution is a new high-speed railway to the Midlands, the northwest and Scotland. The line has a sound business case that will pay for itself.”
Scottish business leaders are desperate to see better connectivity between Scotland and the whole of England, not only London.
Michelle Ferguson, director of CBI Scotland, said: “Scotland needs connections that make it practical to reach London and other major cities without burning half a working day getting there. When travel becomes easier, firms can do more, recruit more widely and compete more effectively.
“Better links by rail and road between Glasgow, Edinburgh, Newcastle, Leeds, Manchester and Liverpool are essential to boost this vital economic hub of ten million people.”
Sara Thiam, chief executive of Prosper, Scotland’s cross-sector economic development organisation, expressed disappointment at the lack of action to address rail journey times between Glasgow and London.
She said: “Improving connectivity between Scotland and key growth markets in England, such as Manchester, the West Midlands and London, is a key priority for investment.
“However, the cancellation of the second phase of HS2 north of Birmingham by the previous UK government means that there are now no plans to relieve capacity constraints and improve passenger and freight services on the west coast main line between Scotland and England.
“We and our members believe the UK and Scottish governments need to work together to create an investment plan for improving infrastructure links along this key growth corridor.”
Business lobbyists, especially in Scotland and northern England, have been trying to convince Labour to undo Sunak’s decision. Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, has said the government is committed to the Northern Powerhouse Rail project, which aims to improve train links across the region from east to west.
Officials at Transport Scotland are understood to be seeking clarity from colleagues at the UK’s Department for Transport (DfT). A source inside the agency said: “The industry continues to develop their plans for what remains of HS2 and what that would mean for journey times and service frequencies for cross-border services to and from Scotland. However, there remains uncertainty over these plans.
“From our most recent engagement with DfT and the industry, we understood that the UK government intended to adapt the current Crewe to Manchester bill to deliver Northern Powerhouse Rail. We continue to engage with the DfT and the industry and seek further clarity on UK government intentions with regard to cross-border services, including journey time and service frequencies and the required capital investment to deliver these improvements.”
A DfT official said: “Following years of mismanagement, poor decisions and spiralling costs, the government has taken decisive action to reset HS2 and ensure the safe delivery of the line between Birmingham and London at the lowest reasonable cost.
“While we will not reverse the previous government’s decision to cancel HS2 Phase 2, we recognise the importance of strong connectivity between Birmingham and Manchester and across the wider north. We will set out further plans to enhance rail links in the north in due course.”
The DfT previously told the i that it had inherited “years of mismanagement, poor decisions and spiralling cost” on HS2 from the Tories. Public opinion, meanwhile, appears to be turning against the scheme altogether.