In a research paper published on Thursday in Jama Network Open, the French epidemiological group Epi-Phare – which brings together the national medicines agency ANSM and the health insurance system – summed up its findings as follows: “Messenger RNA [mRNA] vaccines against Covid-19 do not increase the long-term risk of death from any cause.”
The team assessed data from nearly 30 million adults aged 18 to 59 between 2021 and 2025.
Most – around 23 million – received at least one vaccine dose from mid-2021 onwards, when France launched its mass vaccination campaign against the virus that fuelled a global pandemic. The remaining 6 million remain unvaccinated.
The vast majority of doses administered were mRNA vaccines, made by pharmaceutical companies Moderna or Pfizer/BioNTech.
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No rise in mortality
Over the four years following the first jab, 0.4 percent of vaccinated people died from any cause. Among those who remained unvaccinated, the figure was 0.6 percent – meaning overall mortality in that group was roughly 50 percent higher.
“We can say with a high degree of confidence that there is no increase in the risk of mortality after a Covid vaccine,” said Mahmoud Zureik, who supervised the study.
The efficacy and safety of Covid-19 vaccines is well documented, with serious side effects remaining rare and mainly linked to cardiovascular issues such as myocarditis or pericarditis.
These do not, the study notes, call into question the value of vaccination for most age groups, although France advised against the Moderna jab for young adults.
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Social differences
Vaccine-sceptic networks have long pushed the false narrative that mRNA vaccines caused a hidden wave of deaths – supposedly masked in official statistics focused on Covid-19 mortality only a few months after vaccination.
Zureik explained: “We had a solid understanding of the short-term benefit–risk profile of Covid vaccines; however, their long-term benefit had never been studied.”
While the researchers are confident the vaccines did not trigger increased mortality, they stress that the study cannot, by itself, prove that vaccination caused an overall reduction in deaths.
The gap between the vaccinated and unvaccinated groups may stem from the protective effects of the vaccines – in the short or long term – but could also reflect demographic and social differences such as age or socio-economic background.
(with newswires)