Political campaigning for the LegCo election was immediately suspended following the fire, though government-organised debate forums resumed after a few days. Carnivals organised for the election campaign have also been cancelled.
Hong Kong chief executive John Lee has insisted the LegCo election continue as planned as “we must move forward before we can turn our grief into strength”.
He said that the new legislators would be able to quickly support reconstruction and reforms.
John P Burns, emeritus professor and Chinese politics expert with the University of Hong Kong, said he believed the government would interpret a high turnout as a sign that voters perceive Hong Kong’s reshaped political system as “relatively legitimate”.
But he expected the numbers to be low, in part due to the Tai Po fire.
He pointed out that most Hongkongers have traditionally supported the pan-democrat opposition – which have been effectively barred from taking part. “I think they won’t be convinced to participate this time, just as they mostly stayed away in 2021,” he said.
Mobilising the pro-establishment voters following the fire would be difficult for the government as well, he added.
Some in that camp will be impressed by how authorities have speedily re-housed those made homeless in the fire and the aid authorities have provided, “which by any measure has been rapid and relatively generous”, noted Prof Burns.
But others “may stay away from the polls” as they are “disappointed, even angry, by the governance problems the fire has exposed”, he said.
Hong Kong’s national security office this week reposted a commentary from a pro-Beijing news outlet that urged residents to vote to show support for government’s reconstruction efforts.
“Building a good future together starts with this vote. If you truly love Hong Kong, you should sincerely vote,” the commentary said.