By the time Mark Carney, Donald Trump and Claudia Sheinbaum pulled out their respective countries to kick off the actual drawing part of the FIFA World Cup Draw, spectators in attendance and across the world had already been waiting for what seemed like forever.
With a list of attendees you could mistake for an Oscars ceremony, people were quick to criticise the various performances, speeches and peace award (really, a FIFA peace award) ahead of the draw.
But alas, it’s the football that really matters.
With the stage now set for the tournament that FIFA President Gianni Infantino described to American audiences as “104 Super Bowls in one month,” how might the hosts fare in their respective groups?
Let’s take a look.
Group A: Mexico, South Africa, Korea Republic, European Play-off D
Mexican fans will be delighted with this selection, but this group may prove to be more difficult than they think.
Fresh off a CONCACAF Gold Cup win in July, El tri sits 15th in FIFA’s rankings – the highest of the group – but their recent form suggests they could be beatable.
Mexico has been winless since that Gold Cup final against the US men’s national team (USMNT), with four draws and two losses – against Colombia and Paraguay – in their last six matches.
It must be noted that these were international friendlies, and the side was lacking a few of its obvious starters at times, but it’s impossible to ignore that record.
Their first match, the tournament opener, will be a rematch of the 2010 World Cup opening match against South Africa.
Goalscorers Siphiwe Tshabalala and Rafael Marquez from that 1-1 draw – the team’s last time sharing the pitch – will be long retired when the teams clash again, but the score will likely favour the hosts this time.
Although South Africa is an underrated African side, featuring a nominee for the 2024 Yashin Trophy in goalkeeper Ronwen Williams, among many others performing across the continent, a fit Mexico team is too dominant.
Mexico then take on Korea Republic, a team they’ve played during their recent run of underperformance.
El Tri drew 2-2 with the Koreans via Raul Jimenez’s 94th-minute equaliser in September, with stars Santiago Jimenez and Heung-Min Son coming off the bench.
With Korea dominating their qualification stage and impressing in recent friendlies, this will be a tough game with no obvious winner, but I’ll give the nod to Korea.
Their final opponents will be either Czechia, Denmark, North Macedonia or the Republic of Ireland.
It’s hard to predict who will get through, but, unless Ireland brings their giant-slaying form into the tournament, only a healthy Denmark would seem to be a real challenge for Mexico.
My prediction: Mexico advances in second place.
Group B: Canada, European Playoff A, Qatar, Switzerland
After a historic qualification to the 2022 Qatar World Cup was muted by three successive defeats in what was undoubtedly that tournament’s group of death, things are looking better this time around for Canada.
Not only is Canada playing at home, but they are a much stronger side than four years ago. Stars Alphonso Davies and Moïse Bombito are currently sidelined, but still, Jesse Marsch’s side has seen the emergence of players like Promise David, Nathan Saliba and Tani Oluwaseyi, as well as the addition of foreign-born players like Middlesbrough’s Alfie Jones.
Les Rouges’ first opponent will remain undecided until March, when either Bosnia and Herzegovina, Italy, Northern Ireland or Wales qualify.
Both Bosnia and Herzegovina and Northern Ireland shouldn’t pose too much of a challenge to the Canadians, although the team showed some cracks under the pressure of the last tournament, namely in the finishing department.
Italy would be the obvious favourites if they were to qualify, and against Wales – who lost 1-0 to Les Rouges in September – it could go either team’s way.
Canada will then face the country that hosted them in their first World Cup in 36 years, Qatar.
There’s not too much to write here. This should be a comfortable win for Canada, especially at home.
Finally, Canada will host Switzerland to close out the group stage.
From Shaqiri’s screamers to unexpected upsets, everyone knows about tournament Switzerland.
Undefeated in their qualification campaign, the Swiss have recently put together one of the most consistent records in international tournaments, making the round of 16 in four of their last five World Cups and reaching the quarter-finals at the past two European championships.
Canada is the only host nation the Swiss haven’t played this year, easily defeating Mexico and the USA 4-0 and 4-2, respectively.
Despite being at home, the strength of Murat Yakin’s side will likely see Canada lose their final game.
Ultimately, then, the hosts’ chances of safely leaving the group stage may rest on Italy missing out on a World Cup for the third time in a row.
My Prediction:
With Italy, Canada advances on points in third
Without Italy, Canada advances in second
Group D: USA, Paraguay, Australia, European Play-off C
Celebrations were already over-the-top during the draw, but even more festivities might have been warranted in Washington, considering the Americans’ draw means they may top a World Cup group stage for the third time ever.
Former Spurs boss Mauricio Pochettino was under pressure during his first year as the USMNT went on their worst run of form since 2007 this summer after successive losses to Switzerland, Canada, Turkey and Panama.
The side has been much better since, reaching the finals of the Gold Cup and winning four out of their last six friendlies, including the 5-1 thrashing of Uruguay.
The USMNT kick off the tournament against Paraguay, who haven’t beaten the hosts since slump back in 2007. The teams most recently played in November, with a heavily rotated USMNT the 2-1 victors.
Home fans should expect a win for their side, although not a comfortable one, as Paraguay conceded only 10 goals in their 18 qualifying matches – level with Argentina and only second to Ecuador.
Another recent opponent, Australia, are the hosts’ second challengers. The USMNT took on Australia just one month before they played Paraguay, winning by the same scoreline.
That defeat was the start of a three-game losing streak that the Socceroos will be carrying into the tournament, but their form before the loss was impressive.
Australia, who surprised with a group exit in the last tournament, cruised to World Cup qualification with only one defeat, beating Japan twice along the way.
Although those down under will be hoping for results similar to the 2022 tournament, the USMNT should get another three points from this fixture.
The hosts’ final group stage match will be their most important.
Although their opponent is undecided, that playoff – between Kosovo, Romania, Slovakia or Türkiye – will likely decide where the USMNT finish in the table.
Kosovo has impressed in their run to nab a playoff spot, beating Switzerland, Slovenia and Sweden along the way, but the real threat is Türkiye.
With the likes of Arda Güler and Kenan Yildiz, Türkiye would be the most difficult team for the USMNT. They suffered just one loss across their qualification campaign, and only one more in their last 10 matches.
If Türkiye qualify, they would likely be the only team to beat the hosts on home soil.
My Prediction:
USA advances in first
These are merely predictions, as availability and form can drastically change in the months ahead of the tournament, but the host nations will all be quite pleased with favourable draws.
This is World Cup football, though. Anything can happen.
