People – and not only farmers – are rightly sceptical about claims from the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves.
However one claim she makes to explain the anaemic performance of the UK economy is right. That claim is that growth has been damaged by Brexit. Confirmed by the Office for Budgetary Responsibility and other bodies this is an ongoing hit to economic growth. This is a key reason why taxes have had to rise and will continue to rise unless spending is cut or new ways to grow the economy can be found.
This does not necessarily mean Brexit was a bad idea or one guaranteed to fail. It was a victim of political failure – in its case, ironically, by those who pushed hardest to get it in place. They had no plans around what to do with it and when they did put plans in place they lacked ambition and economic purpose. Six years on the EU remains a major export market for the UK – and the UK for the EU.
All Brexit has done is make trade more difficult and bureaucratic. The wider trade deals that were to flow from Brexit have not materialised on the scale suggested. Where deals have been made they have lacked the protection needed for farming and food. In reality the UK is not big enough as a market to be high on the priority list for countries seeking deals. Trade is a numbers game and the EU with a close to 500 million population is a more attractive prospect than the UK with 70 million population and an weak economy.
New trade deals, particularly for agriculture and food, have not replaced those we had through the EU as a member state. In terms of protection EU deals all offered greater protection for agriculture and greater opportunities.
Political failure was not making better use of Brexit freedoms to become less European, in terms of green regulations, and more globally competitive. That is a failure the present government inherited from a series of prime ministers who supported Brexit but did nothing to make it work.
They and Brexit were also victims of what Harold Macmillan accurately described as ‘events, dear boy, events’. The headwinds against Brexit from the onset were enormous. Covid, war in Ukraine, an unpredictable US president and inflation on a scale not seen for decades, to name a few Whether or not this sank any hopes for Brexit will be debated for years to come, but there is no question Brexit has been a massive financial hit for the UK economy.
In recent weeks the prime minister, Keir Starmer, has been using the B word more and more, setting out the case for better relations with the EU. This is an area where he feels comfortable, because he was an opponent of Brexit. But while he wants better and closer relations, with the trade implications that suggests, his scope to deliver is limited by manifesto commitments before the last election.
These were around not rejoining the EU or a customs union to allow the UK into the single market on the same terms as countries like Norway and Switzerland. This seriously limits room for manoeuvre, although there is relief in Brussels that the UK approach for negotiations is more positive.
Being part of the pro-Ukraine alliance has helped, with Starmer seen as a key policy ally. However that alone cannot get the UK back onto the trading relationship it had before Brexit. As long as the commitment remains not to enter a customs union, the EU is limited in what it can do to improve trade – much as it may want to do so. On that basis Starmer needs to be brave and willing to face down critics.
It will happen at some time, so why not now – a mature UK debate around where the future for Brexit lies. This is not about rejoining the EU; it is about how the UK positions itself to heal the economic pain of poor growth. Such a debate did not happen before the 2016 vote, but we are in a very different world and public opinion has almost certainly shifted. Beginning that debate would be an act of statesmanship that might help Starmer improve his his reputation and earn a place in history as a politician prepared to respect people’s intelligence by by triggering a debate that has to happen.