Conor Browne said an untimely mutation of the virus was behind the surge in cases
The latest data from the Public Health Agency (PHA) has shown an increase in influenza activity across all surveillance indicators over the last week, alongside further rises in RSV and Covid-19 activity.
Influenza cases have risen by 24% from 953 the previous week to 1,181 on December 10, while an increase of some 465% has been recorded in the last month.
“Quite frankly, we’re probably in a worse place now than we were in 2019”
Biorisk consultant Conor Browne said the early surge did not bode well for NI’s already under-pressure healthcare system.
“This ‘super flu’ is H3N2, a very common form of influenza, but it’s mutated a little bit and those mutations have rendered the vaccine slightly less effective,” he told the Belfast Telegraph.
“It still works but it doesn’t work quite as well as it may have last year or the year before. Sometimes you get a mutation, or a number of mutations in the flu virus that becomes dominant and it doesn’t match as well with the vaccine.
“Our healthcare system is already under enormous pressure and one of the reasons is patient flow. So when you stress the system even further, it starts to break and fracture and people don’t get the care they need because there is just too much strain on the system.”
Biorisk consultant Conor Browne
Northern Ireland’s situation is part of a worldwide surge in influenza cases.
Last month, Japan declared a national alert due to the volume of cases, with their surge coming five weeks earlier than last year.
Mr Browne said NI had to avoid large numbers of people becoming ill at the same time.
“You can either get a very high peak quite quickly, and we don’t want that because that means an awful lot of people are going to get sick at the same time, and a certain percentage of those people are going to require emergency department care,” he said.
“So that would be a huge pressure being placed on the NHS in Northern Ireland. That pressure is definitely going to increase regardless over the next two to three weeks. So it’s not going to be a very pleasant Christmas for the NHS.
“Depending on how the flu dynamics play out, and there’s no real way of predicting it at this point, it might also stick around for longer.
“It might peak and then plateau a little bit, causing problems for a longer period than we are used to in Northern Ireland.”
Mr Browne said it was vital steps were taken to reduce the spread of the virus, including masking and the use of air filtration in hospitals.
“It’s about reduction. Having experienced Covid since 2020, we should really be learning the lessons,” he said.
“Cleaning the air in hospitals and having more of a culture of mask wearing among healthcare staff makes a massive difference to infection control around viruses.
“Quite frankly, we’re probably in a worse place now than we were in 2019. I think a lot of basic infection control measures, things like masking, things also like vaccination, have become almost ideological.”
Education Minister Paul Givan
It comes after one NI school revealed this week that it had to consider closing on health and safety grounds after some 170 pupils were absent due to a flu outbreak.
Education Minister Paul Givan has said he will be reviewing data on the impact of flu in schools, but ruled out Covid-style measures.
“We need to find ways to effectively manage without having to shut down schools,” he told Cool FM.
“One of the lessons we should all have learned by now is that the lockdown philosophy and closing down our schools has had a long-term impact that will last a generation.
“We need to do everything we can to keep our schools open and safe.”
“We must not underestimate the seriousness of seasonal flu”
The PHA has said more than 500,000 flu vaccines had been administered this season in Northern Ireland, but urged others to come forward in preparation for Christmas.
Dr Joanne McClean, Director of Public Health said: “With Christmas fast approaching and the additional mixing that comes over the festive season, including visiting older and vulnerable relatives, we are encouraging eligible people to make arrangements to get vaccinated without delay.
NI’s healthcare system will come under further stress due to flu outbreaks
News Catch Up – Thursday 11 December
“More children have been admitted to hospital with influenza than usual so far this year. The vaccine is very effective at protecting children from flu, so parents of children who haven’t had their vaccine yet take steps to enable them to get it, as flu infection is now circulating widely in Northern Ireland.
“We must not underestimate the seriousness of seasonal flu. It can result in hospitalisation, even for some otherwise healthy people.
“Vaccines are the best protection we have against these viruses so it’s important that all those who are eligible get vaccinated as soon as possible.”