The “New Space Economy” (NSE) has emerged as one of the most influential concepts of the past decade, marking the rapid, commercially driven transformation of the global space sector. Unlike the traditional, state-led “Old Space” model, the NSE is fueled by technological advances, growing private investment, and innovative business models such as satellite internet, space tourism, and small-satellite launch services.
Recent milestones illustrate this shift: SpaceX completed the first commercial spacewalk, China unveiled its first space-tourism program at the 27th CHTF, and the European Union advanced its multibillion-euro IRIS² constellation. What once appeared to be a frontier-tech experiment has become a central force shaping global industry. At its core, the NSE aims to build a market-oriented ecosystem that links aerospace manufacturing, launch operations, satellite-constellation deployment, digital infrastructure, and downstream applications such as communications, computing, resource exploration, and tourism. Its ultimate purpose is to make space more accessible and economically productive, transforming it from an exclusive realm of exploration into a shared engine of global growth. Forecasts from major institutions, including Morgan Stanley, suggest that the global space economy could reach USD 1 trillion by 2040.
As of late 2024. China entered this market relatively late. Commercial rocket launches remain limited, and viable reusability has yet to be achieved. Viewed strictly through the lens of private-sector output, China’s commercial space activity is still in its early developmental stage, though long-term potential remains considerable.
A crucial factor shaping the future of the NSE is the degree of openness in space access and governance. The vast region beyond conventional airspace, once dominated by military systems, is now an emerging market that can generate enormous economic benefits once opened to broader participation. Openness requires dismantling entrenched barriers in technology, market entry, and resource allocation. Unlike closed, approval-heavy airspace management, the NSE depends on flexible policies that encourage rapid iteration and experimentation.
The urgency of this challenge is clear. According to data, low-Earth orbit can accommodate about 60,000 satellites, yet global plans exceed 100,000. Managing this mismatch requires transparent, scientifically designed regulatory mechanisms. The United States has led such institutional innovation, streamlining approval processes and allowing private companies to conduct routine test flights within designated airspace. These reforms accelerated reusable-rocket development and helped secure U.S. leadership in the NSE.
This openness reflects a broader strategic concept and represents an expansion of a nation’s “high frontier”, a term originally proposed by Gerald K. O’Neill in the 1970s. O’Neill argued that humanity’s long-term answers to resource and environmental pressures lie beyond Earth, in extraterrestrial resource development and space habitats. His ideas later inspired entrepreneurs such as Elon Musk, whose ventures have pushed aspects of this vision closer to reality. For China, building its own high frontier requires balancing development goals with security considerations, ensuring that openness is both orderly and resilient.
Different regions have adopted distinct approaches to space openness. The United States remains the pioneer of the NSE, supported by a flexible regulatory system that enables private participation in rocket launches, space station operations, and even resource extraction. Legislation such as the Commercial Space Launch Act and the Space Resource Exploration and Utilization Act has created a virtuous cycle in which the government provides infrastructure and oversight while companies drive innovation. NASA’s collaboration with SpaceX, particularly in granting access to launch-site airspace and technical resources, has been decisive. Today, half of the satellites in orbit belong to Starlink, giving the U.S. a powerful advantage in orbital resource allocation. The blending of commercial and military applications, demonstrated through the Starshield system’s performance during the Russia–Ukraine conflict, has further strengthened U.S. strategic leadership.
Europe takes a more cooperative regional approach. The EU’s EUR 10-billion IRIS² initiative aims to deploy nearly 300 low- and medium-Earth-orbit satellites, create integrated airspace management, and challenge U.S. dominance in low-orbit communications. OneWeb, supported through shared European airspace, has deployed almost 660 LEO satellites and now provides services to multiple government agencies. Japan also blends civilian and defense priorities. Its 2025 defense budget includes significant funding for LEO constellations to advance capabilities in satellite internet, remote sensing, and strategic communications.
Compared with the U.S. and Europe, China faces several constraints that limit its pace of NSE development. Airspace management remains rigid, with approval systems that lack the flexibility required for frequent commercial launches. International cooperation is still limited, as many of China’s satellite services remain concentrated domestically and within Belt and Road regions, reducing its influence in global rule-making. Coordination between military and civilian efforts also needs improvement; operational responsibilities and resource allocation remain fragmented, lowering efficiency. These challenges constrain the scale and momentum of China’s emerging space economy and do not yet fully match its status as a major spacefaring nation. Addressing them will be essential as China seeks to shape its own high frontier and participate more fully in the global NSE.