Pedro Goncalves writes:
Gold prices fell on Wednesday morning but remained on course for their strongest annual rise in more than four decades.
Gold futures dropped 1.1% to $4,339.30 an ounce, while spot prices declined 1.2% to $4,325.58 at the time of writing.
Bullion has risen by more than 60% in 2025, marking its largest yearly increase since 1979, when geopolitical developments including the Iranian revolution drove prices sharply higher.
“Maybe towards the end of the first [quarter of 2026], we could see [gold] test $5,000. Certainly, it seems like the sort of catalysts animating gold, especially over the course of the past year, have become self-sustaining,” said Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at Tastylive, speaking to Reuters.
Gold has been one of the strongest performing assets of 2025, underpinned by the Federal Reserve’s pivot towards looser monetary policy. The US central bank cut interest rates three times throughout the year, reducing the opportunity cost of holding assets that do not generate income and lifting demand for bullion.
Investors are also pricing in further rate cuts in 2026, adding to the positive outlook for gold.