The i Paper understands potential future Labour leadership candidates have been sounding out experts on UK-EU policy
Britain is likely to move towards a softer Brexit if Sir Keir Starmer is ousted as Prime Minister as Labour leadership candidates consider moves to get closer to the EU, insiders have said.
The i Paper understands potential candidates have been sounding out Brexit experts for ideas on UK-EU policy ahead of a potential challenge to Starmer ahead of expected defeats in the May local elections.
A Labour insider said that contenders from “across the board” of the party’s different factions are considering moving closer to the EU amid fears that the Prime Minister’s Brexit reset is too incremental to deliver economic growth and win votes.
As part of Starmer’s Brexit reset, the UK and EU have agreed to strike deals on food and drink trade to boost the economy, on energy and linking carbon markets, and on improving the movement of young people in both directions.
The first concrete agreement was struck last month, with the UK to rejoin the Erasmus student exchange scheme from January 2027, but negotiations on Britain formally joining the EU’s weapons rearmament fund failed amid Brussels’ demands for billions of pounds in cash.
New FeatureIn ShortQuick Stories. Same trusted journalism.
But recently pressure has been building in Labour to go further.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting appeared to back joining a customs union with the EU, which No 10 has ruled out, last month, while Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham at Labour conference called for the UK to rejoin the bloc.
The pair are seen as front-runners for any battle to replace Starmer, alongside the likes of Angela Rayner and Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood.
No 10 responded to Streeting by reiterating its opposition to a customs union.
Speaking to The i Paper before the Health Secretary’s intervention, EU relations minister Nick Thomas-Symonds said a customs union was “ruled out”, adding: “This is the framework I am negotiating in – no customs union, no single market, no freedom of movement.”
Candidates staking out softer Brexit policies
But insiders said that candidates are staking out softer Brexit positions with one eye on a future leadership contest where pro-EU Labour members could decide the next prime minister, and as they work out a strategy to try and win the next election.
The Labour insider said: “Things are in flux and candidates are trying to work out how they can appeal to party members, as well as to voters [that] Labour is haemorrhaging leftwards.
“It is hard to tell whether this is purely about party factional moves or whether there is a real desire to stake out a new political strategy for the Government.
“But there is a fairly clear consensus across the party that Brexit hasn’t worked, that voters can see it hasn’t worked, and that the Government’s ‘reset’ isn’t going to give us nearly enough growth or credit with voters.”
While Starmer’s position does not appear in immediate danger, many in Labour believe big defeats in May’s local elections could provide the spark for a leadership contest.
The Labour rules make a challenge difficult to carry out in practice, as any candidate would need the support of 81 MPs and to be confident of then winning a vote of members and affiliates such as trade unions against Starmer. The PM in his New Year message vowed to “stay the course” in a fresh signal he would fight any coup attempt.
Nevertheless, candidates are believed to be moving behind the scenes as Labour loses voters to the Greens and Liberal Democrats.
Around 70 per cent of Labour, Lib Dem and Green voters believe a future leader should open talks on rejoining the EU, according to a YouGov poll for The Times last month, while 80 per cent of those who backed Starmer’s party at the last election want a new prime minister to open talks on joining a customs union with the EU.
The Labour insider added that candidates across the board were considering softer Brexit policies, with those on the right of the party casting around for moves that would gain the support of members, who are typically more left wing.
The insider said: “I actually think the non-Blue Labour bit of the right of the party have more to gain from having a clean Brexit offer because that’s the bit of the party that doesn’t typically have crowd pleasers for members.”
Anand Menon, director of UK in a Changing Europe, an academic think-tank, says Labour leadership candidates are realising they need to bring back urban, young, educated, liberal graduates rather than chasing so-called “hero voters” – often Brexit supporters in “Red Wall” working-class seats – and are therefore considering a pitch on tacking closer to the EU, which would gain the support of the former.
“People are talking about it, Europe is one of the issues,” he said.
“People aren’t stupid – if you want the kind of diehard supporters to vote for you, Europe is the place to look – that is the policy area where there are a lot of diehard supporters.”
He went on: “I think some people in the party are beginning to realise that if you move closer to the EU that [young, educated] is exactly the sort of voter you will attract.
“There is a possibility under a new leader that you could do this slightly differently and slightly better.”
When it comes to the EU, ‘nothing will come for free’
But Menon warned that a future leader would not have time before the next election to negotiate and implement softer Brexit deals for voters to feel it, meaning they “will have all the political pain and none of the economic gain before the next election”.
Your next read
Ex-UK trade official David Henig said “potential leadership candidates” are “talking of going further” than the Government on EU relations, suggesting Starmer’s recent rhetoric on getting closer to Brussels may have been “internal party management”.
Henig, UK director at the European Centre for International Political Economy, also cautioned those pushing for closer ties that the EU is likely to push for its own demands in return.
“The warning to those wanting to go further is that nothing will come for free – they’ll have to be bolder in public to win over Brussels,” he said.